The Prediction Markets

North Carolina's 4th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$17K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 min ago
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What the markets expect

Foushee, 37+ pts 93.5%

Next is Foushee, 40+ pts at 92.7%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Foushee, 37+ pts
93.5%
Kalshi 93.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 97.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Foushee, 37+ pts
Last price
93.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
97.8¢
Sell Yes
93.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$210
Trade this on Kalshi
Foushee, 40+ pts
92.7%
Kalshi 92.7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 97.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Foushee, 40+ pts
Last price
92.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
97.9¢
Sell Yes
92.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$15
Trade this on Kalshi
Foushee, 43+ pts
90.6%
Kalshi 90.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 91.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Foushee, 43+ pts
Last price
90.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
91.5¢
Sell Yes
90.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$329
Trade this on Kalshi
Foushee, 46+ pts
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Foushee, 46+ pts
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$214
Trade this on Kalshi
Foushee, 49+ pts
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Foushee, 49+ pts
Last price
76%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$217
Trade this on Kalshi
Foushee, 52+ pts
67.5%
Kalshi 67.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Foushee, 52+ pts
Last price
67.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Foushee, 55+ pts
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Foushee, 55+ pts
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$107
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 55-60%
31.5%
Polymarket 31.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 55-60%
Last price
31.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Foushee, 58+ pts
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Foushee, 58+ pts
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 50-55%
23.5%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 50-55%
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 10 more outcomes
Democrat 60%+
23.5%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 24.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $408 (4.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 60%+
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
24.5¢
Sell Yes
22.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$408 (4.08x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Foushee, 61+ pts
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Foushee, 61+ pts
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
9.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$117
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 45-50%
9.6%
Polymarket 9.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 45-50%
Last price
9.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
9.8¢
Sell Yes
9.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,020 (10.2x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Foushee, 64+ pts
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Foushee, 64+ pts
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 40-45%
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 40-45%
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$964
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 20-30%
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-30%
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$735
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 30-35%
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30-35%
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-20%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-20%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$961
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 35-40%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35-40%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$592
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$505
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: North Carolina State Board of Elections

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Foushee, 37+ pts
  • Foushee, 40+ pts
  • Foushee, 43+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Foushee, 37+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "North Carolina's 4th District margin of victory". Foushee, 37+ pts leads at 93.5%. Next is Foushee, 40+ pts at 92.7%. $17K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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