The Prediction Markets

North Carolina's 6th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$16K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

McDowell, 2+ pts 82%

Next is McDowell, 5+ pts at 72%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
McDowell, 2+ pts
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 91.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
McDowell, 2+ pts
Last price
82%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91.9¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$105
Trade this on Kalshi
McDowell, 5+ pts
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
McDowell, 5+ pts
Last price
72%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$937
Trade this on Kalshi
McDowell, 8+ pts
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
McDowell, 8+ pts
Last price
57%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$601
Trade this on Kalshi
McDowell, 11+ pts
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
McDowell, 11+ pts
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
McDowell, 14+ pts
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
McDowell, 14+ pts
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
McDowell, 17+ pts
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
McDowell, 17+ pts
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 6-9%
19.5%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 6-9%
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 3-6%
17%
Polymarket 17%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 3-6%
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$484
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 9-12%
15.9%
Polymarket 15.9%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 23.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $427 (4.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 9-12%
Last price
15.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23.4¢
Sell Yes
8.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$427 (4.27x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 12-15%
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 12-15%
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
Republican 15-18%
12.9%
Polymarket 12.9%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 15.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $637 (6.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-18%
Last price
12.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15.7¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$637 (6.37x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-3%
11.6%
Polymarket 11.6%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 14.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $690 (6.90x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-3%
Last price
11.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14.5¢
Sell Yes
8.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$690 (6.90x)
Volume
$420
Trade this on Polymarket
McDowell, 20+ pts
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
McDowell, 20+ pts
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
9.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
McDowell, 23+ pts
9.8%
Kalshi 9.8%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
McDowell, 23+ pts
Last price
9.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
4.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi
McDowell, 26+ pts
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 9.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,031 (10.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
McDowell, 26+ pts
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,031 (10.3x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 0-3%
6.8%
Polymarket 6.8%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 7.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-3%
Last price
6.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.5¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,333 (13.3x)
Volume
$430
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 3-6%
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 3-6%
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$435
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 18%+
5.4%
Polymarket 5.4%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 10.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $980 (9.80x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 18%+
Last price
5.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10.2¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$980 (9.80x)
Volume
$602
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 6%+
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 6%+
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$248
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: North Carolina State Board of Elections

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • McDowell, 2+ pts
  • McDowell, 5+ pts
  • McDowell, 8+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list McDowell, 2+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "North Carolina's 6th District margin of victory". McDowell, 2+ pts leads at 82%. Next is McDowell, 5+ pts at 72%. $16K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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