The Prediction Markets

Norwegian Cruise Line passengers carried in Q3

Closes
Feb 25, 2027, in 4 months
Traded
$6K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 810 thousand 99%

Next is Above 820 thousand at 99%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 810 thousand
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 36s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 810 thousand
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
96¢
Volume
$87
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 820 thousand
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 36s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 820 thousand
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Volume
$87
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 920 thousand
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 36s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 920 thousand
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
20¢
Volume
$70
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 830 thousand
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 830 thousand
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 840 thousand
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 840 thousand
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$64
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 850 thousand
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 850 thousand
Last price
94%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$87
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 860 thousand
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 860 thousand
Last price
91%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$283
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 890 thousand
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 890 thousand
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$211
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 870 thousand
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 870 thousand
Last price
86%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 880 thousand
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 880 thousand
Last price
86%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$320
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 3 more outcomes
Above 900 thousand
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 900 thousand
Last price
74%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 910 thousand
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 36s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 910 thousand
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
30¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 930 thousand
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 36s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 930 thousand
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fiscal.ai

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 810 thousand
  • Above 820 thousand
  • Above 920 thousand

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Norwegian Cruise Line passengers carried in Q3". Above 810 thousand leads at 99%. Next is Above 820 thousand at 99%. $6K has traded across 13 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 25, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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