The Prediction Markets

November 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

Closes
Jan 2, 2027, in 58 days
Traded
$7K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
2 h ago
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What the markets expect

1.54ºC 31%

Next is 1.50–1.54ºC at 29.1%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

1.54ºC 31%1.50–1.54ºC 29.1%1.45–1.49ºC 20.5%1.40–1.44ºC 14.3%1.35–1.39ºC 4.8%1.35ºC 0.3%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
1.54ºC
31%
Polymarket 32.5%(31% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.54ºC
Last price
32.5%
Fair, margin removed
31%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$221
Trade this on Polymarket
1.50–1.54ºC
29.1%
Polymarket 30.5%(29.1% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.50–1.54ºC
Last price
30.5%
Fair, margin removed
29.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$243
Trade this on Polymarket
1.45–1.49ºC
20.5%
Polymarket 21.5%(20.5% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.45–1.49ºC
Last price
21.5%
Fair, margin removed
20.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$491
Trade this on Polymarket
1.40–1.44ºC
14.3%
Polymarket 15%(14.3% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.40–1.44ºC
Last price
15%
Fair, margin removed
14.3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.35–1.39ºC
4.8%
Polymarket 5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.35–1.39ºC
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$282
Trade this on Polymarket
1.35ºC
0.3%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.35ºC
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 1.54ºC
  • 1.50–1.54ºC
  • 1.45–1.49ºC

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "November 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)". 1.54ºC leads at 31%. Next is 1.50–1.54ºC at 29.1%. $7K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 2, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for November 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for November 2026 is later revised. The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Nov" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for November 2026 is provided by NASA by January 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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