The Prediction Markets

Number of emergency rate cuts in 2026?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$514K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

0 cuts 97.9%

Next is 3 cuts at 1%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

0 cuts 97.9%3 cuts 1%4 cuts 0.5%2 cuts 0.4%1 cut 0.2%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
0 cuts
97.9%
Kalshi 96.6%(97.9% fair)polled, 34s agoBest Yes 98.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
0 cuts
Last price
96.6%
Fair, margin removed
97.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.2¢
Sell Yes
96.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$292K
Trade this on Kalshi
3 cuts
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
3 cuts
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$32K
Trade this on Kalshi
4 cuts
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Kalshi
Contract
4 cuts
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Kalshi
2 cuts
0.4%
Kalshi 0.4%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
2 cuts
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$43K
Trade this on Kalshi
1 cut
0.2%
Kalshi 0.2%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
1 cut
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$123K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Federal Reserve

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 0 cuts
  • 3 cuts
  • 4 cuts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Number of emergency rate cuts in 2026?". 0 cuts leads at 97.9%. Next is 3 cuts at 1%. $514K has traded across 5 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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