The Prediction Markets

Number of Fed rate changes before 2027

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$4.0M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Exactly 2 67.9%

Next is July 2027 Meeting at 50.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Exactly 2
67.9%
Kalshi 67.9%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 70.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 2
Last price
67.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70.9¢
Sell Yes
64.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$41K
Trade this on Kalshi
July 2027 Meeting
50.5%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
July 2027 Meeting
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$127
Trade this on Polymarket
April 2027 Meeting
30.5%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
April 2027 Meeting
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
June 2027 Meeting
30%
Polymarket 30%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
June 2027 Meeting
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$27
Trade this on Polymarket
Exactly 1
19.6%
Kalshi 19.6%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 19.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $510 (5.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 1
Last price
19.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19.6¢
Sell Yes
16.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$510 (5.10x)
Volume
$36K
Trade this on Kalshi
March 2027 Meeting
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
March 2027 Meeting
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Exactly 3
11.2%
Kalshi 11.2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 15.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $658 (6.58x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 3
Last price
11.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15.2¢
Sell Yes
10.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$658 (6.58x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Kalshi
January 2027 Meeting
6.6%
Polymarket 6.6%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
January 2027 Meeting
Last price
6.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
5.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
December 2026 Meeting
2.8%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 2026 Meeting
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$424K
Trade this on Polymarket
Exactly 4
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 4
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 9 more outcomes
October 2026 Meeting
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 2026 Meeting
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$234K
Trade this on Polymarket
Exactly 6
0.3%
Kalshi 0.3%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 6
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 7
0.3%
Kalshi 0.3%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 7
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 8
0.3%
Kalshi 0.3%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 8
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 9
0.3%
Kalshi 0.3%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 9
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 11
0.3%
Kalshi 0.3%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 11
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 12
0.2%
Kalshi 0.2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 12
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 5
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 5
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 10
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 10
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: federalreserve.gov
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Federal Reserve

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Exactly 2
  • July 2027 Meeting
  • April 2027 Meeting

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Exactly 2 for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Number of Fed rate changes before 2027". Exactly 2 leads at 67.9%. Next is July 2027 Meeting at 50.5%. $4.0M has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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