The Prediction Markets

Number of tornadoes in May 2026?

Closed
Jun 1, 2026
Traded
$37K
Venues
Kalshi
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jun 1, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 159 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 25
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 3816 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 25
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$941
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 50
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 3816 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 50
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 75
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 3816 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 75
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
96¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 100
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 3816 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 100
Last price
93%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 125
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 3816 h agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 125
Last price
79%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 175
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 3816 h agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 175
Last price
58%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 150
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 3816 h agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 150
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 200
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 3816 h agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 200
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 225
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 3816 h agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 225
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 250
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 3816 h agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 250
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 275
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 3816 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 275
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange)

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 25
  • Above 50
  • Above 75

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Number of tornadoes in May 2026?". Above 25 last traded at 99%. Next is Above 50 at 98%. $37K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on Jun 1, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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