The Prediction Markets

Number of tornadoes in Nov 2026?

Closes
Dec 1, 2026, in 26 days
Traded
$2K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
3 h ago
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What the markets expect

Above 50 74%

Next is Above 25 at 71%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 50
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 50
Last price
74%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$122
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 25
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 25
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$631
Trade this on Kalshi
40 - 59
33.5%
Polymarket 33.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
40 - 59
Last price
33.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$288
Trade this on Polymarket
10 - 24
27.5%
Polymarket 27.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
10 - 24
Last price
27.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$362
Trade this on Polymarket
60 or more
25.1%
Polymarket 25.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 49.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $201 (2.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
60 or more
Last price
25.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
49.8¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$201 (2.01x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 75
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 75
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$73
Trade this on Kalshi
25 - 39
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
25 - 39
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Polymarket
Under 10
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Under 10
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$162
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 100
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 100
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 125
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 125
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 6 more outcomes
Above 150
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 150
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 175
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 175
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 200
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 200
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$150
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 225
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 225
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 250
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 250
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$75
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 275
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 275
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 50
  • Above 25
  • 40 - 59

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 50 for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Number of tornadoes in Nov 2026?". Above 50 leads at 74%. Next is Above 25 at 71%. $2K has traded across 16 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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