The Prediction Markets

Number of tornadoes in Oct 2026?

Closes
Nov 1, 2026, in 8 days
Traded
$44K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 25 99%

Next is 35 - 59 at 87.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 25
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 25
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
35 - 59
87.5%
Polymarket 87.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 88¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
35 - 59
Last price
87.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 50
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 50
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 75
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 75
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
60 - 89
9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 9.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,075 (10.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
60 - 89
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
9.3¢
Sell Yes
8.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,075 (10.8x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 100
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 100
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$702
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 125
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 125
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$48
Trade this on Kalshi
20 - 34
2.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
20 - 34
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
90 or more
2.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
90 or more
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 150
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 150
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$130
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 6 more outcomes
Above 175
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 175
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$171
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 200
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 200
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$107
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 225
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 225
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$95
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 250
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 250
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$57
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 275
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 275
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$65
Trade this on Kalshi
Under 20
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Under 20
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 25
  • 35 - 59
  • Above 50

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 25 for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Number of tornadoes in Oct 2026?". Above 25 leads at 99%. Next is 35 - 59 at 87.5%. $44K has traded across 16 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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