The Prediction Markets

NY-12 House election: Caroline Shinkle vote percent

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
3 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

At least 6% 97%

Next is At least 8% at 97%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
At least 6%
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 3 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
At least 6%
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
94¢
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 8%
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 3 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
At least 8%
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
94¢
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 10%
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 3 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
At least 10%
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
94¢
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 12%
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 3 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
At least 12%
Last price
96%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
92¢
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 14%
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 14%
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$384
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 16%
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 16%
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$394
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 18%
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 18%
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$494
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 20%
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 20%
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$125
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 22%
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 22%
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$192
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: State Board of Elections, Albany, NY

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • At least 6%
  • At least 8%
  • At least 10%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "NY-12 House election: Caroline Shinkle vote percent". At least 6% leads at 97%. Next is At least 8% at 97%. $2K has traded across 9 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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