The Prediction Markets

NY-12 House election: Micah Lasher vote percent

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

At least 74% 93%

Next is At least 76% at 85%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
At least 74%
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 74%
Last price
93%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 76%
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 76%
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 78%
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 78%
Last price
76%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$205
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 80%
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 80%
Last price
54%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 82%
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 82%
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$683
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 84%
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 84%
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$337
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 86%
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 86%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 88%
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 88%
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 90%
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 90%
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: State Board of Elections, Albany, NY

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • At least 74%
  • At least 76%
  • At least 78%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "NY-12 House election: Micah Lasher vote percent". At least 74% leads at 93%. Next is At least 76% at 85%. $1K has traded across 9 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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