The Prediction Markets

NY-24 House election: Alissa Ellman vote percent

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
3 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

At least 30% 97%

Next is At least 32% at 96%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
At least 30%
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 3 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
At least 30%
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
94¢
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 32%
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 3 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
At least 32%
Last price
96%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
92¢
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 34%
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 34%
Last price
93%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 36%
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 36%
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 38%
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 38%
Last price
64%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 40%
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 40%
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 42%
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 42%
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 44%
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 44%
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 46%
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 46%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: State Board of Elections, Albany, NY

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • At least 30%
  • At least 32%
  • At least 34%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "NY-24 House election: Alissa Ellman vote percent". At least 30% leads at 97%. Next is At least 32% at 96%. $2K has traded across 9 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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