The Prediction Markets

October 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$48K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
3 min ago
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What the markets expect

Hottest on record 96.6%

Next is 3rd hottest at 2.6%. The venues differ most on Hottest on record (Polymarket 97.1%, Kalshi 83%), a 14-point gap.

Hottest on record 96.6%3rd hottest 2.6%2nd hottest 0.6%4th or lower 0.2%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 7 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Hottest on record
96.6%
Polymarket 97.1%polled, 7 min agoKalshi 83%(96.4% fair)polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Polymarket
Contract
1st hottest
Last price
97.1%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
95.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Hottest ever
Last price
83%
Fair, margin removed
96.4%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 7 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 85¢ and selling on Polymarket at 95.2¢ nets 1020 bps before fees.

3rd hottest
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
3rd hottest
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
2nd hottest
0.6%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
2nd hottest
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
4th or lower
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
4th or lower
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Indicative gap, prices are 7 min old: Hottest on record asks 85¢ on Kalshi and bids 95.2¢ on Polymarket (1020 bps). Recheck both venues before trading. See all spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • Kalshi 'hottest ever' equals Polymarket '1st hottest'; Polymarket counts a tie for first as first.
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 29, 2026, 5:14 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 16, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: NCEI
Show full rule comparison
  • Kalshi 'hottest ever' equals Polymarket '1st hottest'; Polymarket counts a tie for first as first.
  • Trading closes Nov 29, 2026, 5:14 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 16, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Hottest on record
  • 3rd hottest
  • 2nd hottest

Live prices for Hottest on record

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Cover all 4 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "October 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?". Hottest on record leads at 96.6%. Next is 3rd hottest at 2.6%. $48K has traded across 4 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 29, 2026.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2026 versus the data points available for all other Octobers on record. Note: If October 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for October 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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