Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: Exactly 0.2% 14.8%
Next is Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: Exactly 0.2% at 14.8%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: Exactly 0.2%14.8%17%14.8% fair12¢ bid, 18¢ askpolled, just now18¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $556 (5.56x)Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: Exactly 0.2%14.8%Kalshi 17%(14.8% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: Exactly 0.2%
14.8%
17%
14.8% fair
12¢ bid, 18¢ ask
polled, just now
18¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: Exactly 0.2%
14.8%
Kalshi 17%(14.8% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: Exactly 0.2%
- Last price
- 17%
- Fair, margin removed
- 14.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 18¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $556 (5.56x)
- Volume
- $480
Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: Exactly 0.2%Kalshi: “Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: Exactly 0.3%”14.8%17%14.8% fair14¢ bid, 19¢ askpolled, just now19¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $526 (5.26x)Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: Exactly 0.2%14.8%Kalshi 17%(14.8% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: Exactly 0.2%
Kalshi: “Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: Exactly 0.3%”
14.8%
17%
14.8% fair
14¢ bid, 19¢ ask
polled, just now
19¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: Exactly 0.2%
14.8%
Kalshi 17%(14.8% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: Exactly 0.3%
- Last price
- 17%
- Fair, margin removed
- 14.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 19¢
- Sell Yes
- 14¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $526 (5.26x)
- Volume
- $381
Headline: Exactly 0.2%, Core: Exactly 0.2%13.9%16%13.9% fair6¢ bid, 16¢ askpolled, just now16¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $625 (6.25x)Headline: Exactly 0.2%, Core: Exactly 0.2%13.9%Kalshi 16%(13.9% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Headline: Exactly 0.2%, Core: Exactly 0.2%
13.9%
16%
13.9% fair
6¢ bid, 16¢ ask
polled, just now
16¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Headline: Exactly 0.2%, Core: Exactly 0.2%
13.9%
Kalshi 16%(13.9% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Headline: Exactly 0.2%, Core: Exactly 0.2%
- Last price
- 16%
- Fair, margin removed
- 13.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
- Volume
- $2K
Headline: 0.4% or above, Core: 0.1% or belowKalshi: “Headline: 0.4% or above, Core: 0.4% or above”10.4%12%10.4% fair8¢ bid, 17¢ askpolled, just now17¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $588 (5.88x)Headline: 0.4% or above, Core: 0.1% or below10.4%Kalshi 12%(10.4% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Headline: 0.4% or above, Core: 0.1% or below
Kalshi: “Headline: 0.4% or above, Core: 0.4% or above”
10.4%
12%
10.4% fair
8¢ bid, 17¢ ask
polled, just now
17¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Headline: 0.4% or above, Core: 0.1% or below
10.4%
Kalshi 12%(10.4% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Headline: 0.4% or above, Core: 0.4% or above
- Last price
- 12%
- Fair, margin removed
- 10.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 17¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $588 (5.88x)
- Volume
- $44
Headline: 0.4% or above, Core: 0.1% or belowKalshi: “Headline: 0.4% or above, Core: Exactly 0.2%”7.8%9%7.8% fair4¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, just now9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Headline: 0.4% or above, Core: 0.1% or below7.8%Kalshi 9%(7.8% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Headline: 0.4% or above, Core: 0.1% or below
Kalshi: “Headline: 0.4% or above, Core: Exactly 0.2%”
7.8%
9%
7.8% fair
4¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, just now
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Headline: 0.4% or above, Core: 0.1% or below
7.8%
Kalshi 9%(7.8% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Headline: 0.4% or above, Core: Exactly 0.2%
- Last price
- 9%
- Fair, margin removed
- 7.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $3K
Headline: Exactly 0.2%, Core: 0.4% or aboveKalshi: “Headline: Exactly 0.2%, Core: 0.1% or below”7.4%8.5%7.4% fair4¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, just now13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Headline: Exactly 0.2%, Core: 0.4% or above7.4%Kalshi 8.5%(7.4% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Headline: Exactly 0.2%, Core: 0.4% or above
Kalshi: “Headline: Exactly 0.2%, Core: 0.1% or below”
7.4%
8.5%
7.4% fair
4¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, just now
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Headline: Exactly 0.2%, Core: 0.4% or above
7.4%
Kalshi 8.5%(7.4% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Headline: Exactly 0.2%, Core: 0.1% or below
- Last price
- 8.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 7.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
Headline: 0.1% or below, Core: Exactly 0.2%5.2%6%5.2% fair— bid, 11¢ askpolled, just now11¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $909 (9.09x)Headline: 0.1% or below, Core: Exactly 0.2%5.2%Kalshi 6%(5.2% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Headline: 0.1% or below, Core: Exactly 0.2%
5.2%
6%
5.2% fair
— bid, 11¢ ask
polled, just now
11¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Headline: 0.1% or below, Core: Exactly 0.2%
5.2%
Kalshi 6%(5.2% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Headline: 0.1% or below, Core: Exactly 0.2%
- Last price
- 6%
- Fair, margin removed
- 5.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
- Volume
- $5K
Headline: 0.1% or below, Core: Exactly 0.2%Kalshi: “Headline: 0.1% or below, Core: 0.1% or below”4.4%5%4.3% fair4¢ bid, 11¢ askpolled, just now11¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $909 (9.09x)Headline: 0.1% or below, Core: Exactly 0.2%4.4%Kalshi 5%(4.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Headline: 0.1% or below, Core: Exactly 0.2%
Kalshi: “Headline: 0.1% or below, Core: 0.1% or below”
4.4%
5%
4.3% fair
4¢ bid, 11¢ ask
polled, just now
11¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Headline: 0.1% or below, Core: Exactly 0.2%
4.4%
Kalshi 5%(4.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Headline: 0.1% or below, Core: 0.1% or below
- Last price
- 5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 4.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
- Volume
- $601
Headline: 0.4% or above, Core: 0.1% or below4.4%5%4.3% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, just now5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Headline: 0.4% or above, Core: 0.1% or below4.4%Kalshi 5%(4.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Headline: 0.4% or above, Core: 0.1% or below
4.4%
5%
4.3% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, just now
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Headline: 0.4% or above, Core: 0.1% or below
4.4%
Kalshi 5%(4.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Headline: 0.4% or above, Core: 0.1% or below
- Last price
- 5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 4.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $3K
Headline: 0.4% or above, Core: 0.1% or belowKalshi: “Headline: 0.4% or above, Core: Exactly 0.3%”3.5%4%3.5% fair4¢ bid, 11¢ askpolled, just now11¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $909 (9.09x)Headline: 0.4% or above, Core: 0.1% or below3.5%Kalshi 4%(3.5% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Headline: 0.4% or above, Core: 0.1% or below
Kalshi: “Headline: 0.4% or above, Core: Exactly 0.3%”
3.5%
4%
3.5% fair
4¢ bid, 11¢ ask
polled, just now
11¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Headline: 0.4% or above, Core: 0.1% or below
3.5%
Kalshi 4%(3.5% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Headline: 0.4% or above, Core: Exactly 0.3%
- Last price
- 4%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
- Volume
- $812
Show 6 more outcomesHide 6 outcomes
Headline: Exactly 0.2%, Core: Exactly 0.2%Kalshi: “Headline: Exactly 0.2%, Core: Exactly 0.3%”3.5%4%3.5% fair— bid, 8¢ askpolled, just now8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Headline: Exactly 0.2%, Core: Exactly 0.2%3.5%Kalshi 4%(3.5% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Headline: Exactly 0.2%, Core: Exactly 0.2%
Kalshi: “Headline: Exactly 0.2%, Core: Exactly 0.3%”
3.5%
4%
3.5% fair
— bid, 8¢ ask
polled, just now
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Headline: Exactly 0.2%, Core: Exactly 0.2%
3.5%
Kalshi 4%(3.5% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Headline: Exactly 0.2%, Core: Exactly 0.3%
- Last price
- 4%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: 0.4% or aboveKalshi: “Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: 0.1% or below”3%3.5%— bid, 7¢ askpolled, just now7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: 0.4% or above3%Kalshi 3.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: 0.4% or above
Kalshi: “Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: 0.1% or below”
3%
3.5%
— bid, 7¢ ask
polled, just now
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: 0.4% or above
3%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: 0.1% or below
- Last price
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: 0.4% or above2.6%3%— bid, 7¢ askpolled, just now7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: 0.4% or above2.6%Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: 0.4% or above
2.6%
3%
— bid, 7¢ ask
polled, just now
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: 0.4% or above
2.6%
Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: 0.4% or above
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $737
Headline: 0.1% or below, Core: Exactly 0.2%Kalshi: “Headline: 0.1% or below, Core: 0.4% or above”1.7%2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, just now4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Headline: 0.1% or below, Core: Exactly 0.2%1.7%Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Headline: 0.1% or below, Core: Exactly 0.2%
Kalshi: “Headline: 0.1% or below, Core: 0.4% or above”
1.7%
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, just now
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Headline: 0.1% or below, Core: Exactly 0.2%
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Headline: 0.1% or below, Core: 0.4% or above
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $737
Headline: Exactly 0.2%, Core: 0.4% or above1.7%2%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, just now5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Headline: Exactly 0.2%, Core: 0.4% or above1.7%Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Headline: Exactly 0.2%, Core: 0.4% or above
1.7%
2%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, just now
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Headline: Exactly 0.2%, Core: 0.4% or above
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Headline: Exactly 0.2%, Core: 0.4% or above
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $737
Headline: 0.1% or below, Core: Exactly 0.2%Kalshi: “Headline: 0.1% or below, Core: Exactly 0.3%”0.9%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, just now2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Headline: 0.1% or below, Core: Exactly 0.2%0.9%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Headline: 0.1% or below, Core: Exactly 0.2%
Kalshi: “Headline: 0.1% or below, Core: Exactly 0.3%”
0.9%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, just now
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Headline: 0.1% or below, Core: Exactly 0.2%
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Headline: 0.1% or below, Core: Exactly 0.3%
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: Exactly 0.2%
- Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: Exactly 0.2%
- Headline: Exactly 0.2%, Core: Exactly 0.2%
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "October 2026 CPI MoM Combo · Headline & Core". Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: Exactly 0.2% leads at 14.8%. Next is Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: Exactly 0.2% at 14.8%. $17K has traded across 16 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 10, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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