The Prediction Markets

October 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

Closes
Dec 2, 2026, in 40 days
Traded
$5K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

1.30001 or above 94%

Next is 1.49ºC at 43.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
1.30001 or above
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
1.30001 or above
Last price
94%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
1.49ºC
43.5%
Polymarket 43.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.49ºC
Last price
43.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.45–1.49ºC
32%
Polymarket 32%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 63¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.45–1.49ºC
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$98
Trade this on Polymarket
1.35–1.39ºC
31.5%
Polymarket 31.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 62¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.35–1.39ºC
Last price
31.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$238
Trade this on Polymarket
1.40–1.44ºC
30%
Polymarket 30%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.40–1.44ºC
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$102
Trade this on Polymarket
1.30–1.34ºC
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.30–1.34ºC
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$244
Trade this on Polymarket
1.24 to 1.30
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
1.24 to 1.30
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$79
Trade this on Kalshi
1.03 to 1.09
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
1.03 to 1.09
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$611
Trade this on Kalshi
1.30ºC
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 7.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.30ºC
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
7.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,351 (13.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.10 to 1.16
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
1.10 to 1.16
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$71
Trade this on Kalshi
1.17 to 1.23
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
1.17 to 1.23
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$191
Trade this on Kalshi
1.02999 or below
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
1.02999 or below
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$86
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: data.giss.nasa.gov
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 1.30001 or above
  • 1.49ºC
  • 1.45–1.49ºC

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list 1.30001 or above for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "October 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)". 1.30001 or above leads at 94%. Next is 1.49ºC at 43.5%. $5K has traded across 12 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 2, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for October 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for October 2026 is later revised. The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Oct" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for October 2026 is provided by NASA by December 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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