The Prediction Markets

October Unemployment Rate

Closes
Nov 6, 2026, in 14 days
Traded
$30K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 5.9% 99%

Next is Above 4.6% at 98.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 5.9%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.9%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$149
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.6%
98.5%
Kalshi 98.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.6%
Last price
98.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.7%
98.5%
Kalshi 98.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.7%
Last price
98.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.8%
98.5%
Kalshi 98.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.8%
Last price
98.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.9%
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.9%
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
97¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6.1%
96.8%
Kalshi 96.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 97%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.1%
Last price
96.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.1%
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6.0%
95.8%
Kalshi 96.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 95%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.0%
Last price
96.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.0%
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$28
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6.2%
94%
Kalshi 92%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 96%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.2%
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.2%
Last price
96%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.0%
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.0%
Last price
93%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6.3%
91%
Kalshi 92%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 88%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.3%
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$253
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.3%
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$66
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 21 more outcomes
Above 6.4%
55.7%
Kalshi 65%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 41%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.4%
Last price
65%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.4%
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$803
Trade this on Kalshi
4.2%
34%
Polymarket 34%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.2%
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
4.3%
30%
Polymarket 30%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.3%
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 5.1%
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.1%
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
4.1%
28%
Polymarket 28%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.1%
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 6.5%
24.6%
Kalshi 45%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 12%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.5%
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.5%
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$98
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6.6%
13.5%
Kalshi 23%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.6%
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.6%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.2%
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.2%
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$201
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6.7%
6.5%
Kalshi 10%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.7%
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$13
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.7%
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
4.0%
5.3%
Polymarket 5.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.0%
Last price
5.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
4.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$951
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 5.3%
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.3%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$498
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6.8%
3.8%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.8%
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.8%
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
4.4%
3.6%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.4%
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 5.4%
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.4%
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6.9%
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.9%
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$156
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.5%
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.5%
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.6%
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.6%
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
4.6%
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.6%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Polymarket
3.8%
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.8%
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$455
Trade this on Polymarket
4.5%
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.5%
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$414
Trade this on Polymarket
3.9%
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.9%
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$375
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Trading Economics, Trading Economics, Trading Economics

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 5.9%
  • Above 4.6%
  • Above 4.7%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 5.9% for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "October Unemployment Rate". Above 5.9% leads at 99%. Next is Above 4.6% at 98.5%. $30K has traded across 31 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 6, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for October 2026. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question. The relevant data release is scheduled for November 6, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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