The Prediction Markets

Ohio's 12th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$21K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Balderson, 12+ pts 83%

Next is Balderson, 15+ pts at 77.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Balderson, 12+ pts
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 93.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $107 (1.07x)
Kalshi
Contract
Balderson, 12+ pts
Last price
83%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93.4¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$107 (1.07x)
Volume
$11
Trade this on Kalshi
Balderson, 15+ pts
77.5%
Kalshi 77.5%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Balderson, 15+ pts
Last price
77.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Balderson, 18+ pts
68.5%
Kalshi 68.5%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Balderson, 18+ pts
Last price
68.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Balderson, 21+ pts
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Balderson, 21+ pts
Last price
55%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$63
Trade this on Kalshi
Balderson, 24+ pts
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Balderson, 24+ pts
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$283
Trade this on Kalshi
Balderson, 27+ pts
39.5%
Kalshi 39.5%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Balderson, 27+ pts
Last price
39.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Balderson, 30+ pts
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Balderson, 30+ pts
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$711
Trade this on Kalshi
Balderson, 33+ pts
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Balderson, 33+ pts
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$9
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 20-25%
23%
Polymarket 23%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 15-20%
19.2%
Polymarket 19.2%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 20.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $483 (4.83x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
19.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20.7¢
Sell Yes
17.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$483 (4.83x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 8 more outcomes
Republican 25-30%
12%
Polymarket 12%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 30-35%
10.3%
Polymarket 10.3%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 10.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $952 (9.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30-35%
Last price
10.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10.5¢
Sell Yes
10.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$952 (9.52x)
Volume
$585
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 10-15%
8.9%
Polymarket 8.9%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 14.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $680 (6.80x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-15%
Last price
8.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14.7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$680 (6.80x)
Volume
$759
Trade this on Polymarket
Balderson, 36+ pts
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Balderson, 36+ pts
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$585
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 35-40%
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 9.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,099 (11.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 35-40%
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.1¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,099 (11.0x)
Volume
$393
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat Wins
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Volume
$466
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-10%
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-10%
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$288
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 40%+
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 40%+
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Balderson, 12+ pts
  • Balderson, 15+ pts
  • Balderson, 18+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Balderson, 12+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Ohio's 12th District margin of victory". Balderson, 12+ pts leads at 83%. Next is Balderson, 15+ pts at 77.5%. $21K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More other markets

See all other markets