The Prediction Markets

Ohio's 13th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$33K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
44 min ago
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What the markets expect

Sykes, 2+ pts 90%

Next is Sykes, 5+ pts at 84%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 44 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Sykes, 2+ pts
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 96.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sykes, 2+ pts
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
96.5¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sykes, 5+ pts
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 95.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sykes, 5+ pts
Last price
84%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
95.4¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sykes, 8+ pts
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sykes, 8+ pts
Last price
76%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sykes, 11+ pts
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sykes, 11+ pts
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sykes, 14+ pts
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sykes, 14+ pts
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$112
Trade this on Kalshi
Sykes, 17+ pts
38.5%
Kalshi 38.5%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sykes, 17+ pts
Last price
38.5%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 15-20%
35%
Polymarket 35%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Sykes, 20+ pts
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sykes, 20+ pts
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 20-25%
20%
Polymarket 20%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 10-15%
18.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-15%
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Sykes, 23+ pts
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sykes, 23+ pts
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
8.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 25-30%
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Sykes, 26+ pts
7.5%
Kalshi 7.5%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sykes, 26+ pts
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 5-10%
7.4%
Polymarket 7.4%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 9.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,099 (11.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5-10%
Last price
7.4%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
9.1¢
Sell Yes
5.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,099 (11.0x)
Volume
$723
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-5%
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 30%+
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30%+
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 44 min agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled 44 min ago
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$484
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Sykes, 2+ pts
  • Sykes, 5+ pts
  • Sykes, 8+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Sykes, 2+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Ohio's 13th District margin of victory". Sykes, 2+ pts leads at 90%. Next is Sykes, 5+ pts at 84%. $33K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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