The Prediction Markets

Ohio's 1st District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$25K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Democrat 9-12% 18.5%

Next is Democrat 12-15% at 15.3%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 7 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Democrat 9-12%
18.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 9-12%
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 12-15%
15.3%
Polymarket 15.3%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 15.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $645 (6.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 12-15%
Last price
15.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15.5¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$645 (6.45x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 18-21%
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 18-21%
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 6-9%
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 14.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $671 (6.71x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 6-9%
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14.9¢
Sell Yes
12.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$671 (6.71x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 15-18%
12%
Polymarket 12%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-18%
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 3-6%
8.3%
Polymarket 8.3%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 3-6%
Last price
8.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
7.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Conroy, 1+ pts
6.6%
Kalshi 6.6%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Conroy, 1+ pts
Last price
6.6%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Conroy, 4+ pts
6.6%
Kalshi 6.6%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Conroy, 4+ pts
Last price
6.6%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$28
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 0-3%
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-3%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 21%+
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 21%+
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-3%
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-3%
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 3%+
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 3%+
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Democrat 9-12%
  • Democrat 12-15%
  • Democrat 18-21%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Democrat 9-12% for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Ohio's 1st District margin of victory". Democrat 9-12% leads at 18.5%. Next is Democrat 12-15% at 15.3%. $25K has traded across 12 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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