The Prediction Markets

Ohio's 7th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$91K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Poindexter, 1+ pts 90.6%

Next is Poindexter, 2+ pts at 78%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Poindexter, 1+ pts
90.6%
Kalshi 90.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 95.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Poindexter, 1+ pts
Last price
90.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
95.2¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Poindexter, 2+ pts
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Poindexter, 2+ pts
Last price
78%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Poindexter, 4+ pts
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Poindexter, 4+ pts
Last price
69%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Poindexter, 6+ pts
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Poindexter, 6+ pts
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Poindexter, 8+ pts
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Poindexter, 8+ pts
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Poindexter, 10+ pts
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Poindexter, 10+ pts
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Poindexter, 12+ pts
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Poindexter, 12+ pts
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$396
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 12%+
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 12%+
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Poindexter, 14+ pts
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Poindexter, 14+ pts
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 0-3%
17%
Polymarket 17%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-3%
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 19 more outcomes
Democrat 9-12%
15.2%
Polymarket 15.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $559 (5.59x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 9-12%
Last price
15.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17.9¢
Sell Yes
12.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$559 (5.59x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 3-6%
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 3-6%
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 6-9%
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 6-9%
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Poindexter, 16+ pts
11.5%
Kalshi 11.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Poindexter, 16+ pts
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
5.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Miller, 1+ pts
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Miller, 1+ pts
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
3.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Miller, 4+ pts
8.8%
Kalshi 8.8%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 8.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,136 (11.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Miller, 4+ pts
Last price
8.8%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
8.8¢
Sell Yes
4.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,136 (11.4x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 0-3%
8.3%
Polymarket 8.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $952 (9.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-3%
Last price
8.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10.5¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$952 (9.52x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Miller, 7+ pts
6.9%
Kalshi 6.9%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Miller, 7+ pts
Last price
6.9%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Poindexter, 18+ pts
6.6%
Kalshi 6.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Poindexter, 18+ pts
Last price
6.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Poindexter, 20+ pts
5.3%
Kalshi 5.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,053 (10.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Poindexter, 20+ pts
Last price
5.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,053 (10.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Miller, 22+ pts
4.9%
Kalshi 4.9%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Miller, 22+ pts
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$969
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 6-9%
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 6-9%
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Miller, 16+ pts
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Miller, 16+ pts
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 3-6%
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 3-6%
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Miller, 10+ pts
2.2%
Kalshi 2.2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Miller, 10+ pts
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Miller, 13+ pts
2.2%
Kalshi 2.2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Miller, 13+ pts
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 9-12%
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 9-12%
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 12%+
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 12%+
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Miller, 19+ pts
0.4%
Kalshi 0.4%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
Miller, 19+ pts
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
4.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,381 (23.8x)
Volume
$664
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Ohio Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Poindexter, 1+ pts
  • Poindexter, 2+ pts
  • Poindexter, 4+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Poindexter, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Ohio's 7th District margin of victory". Poindexter, 1+ pts leads at 90.6%. Next is Poindexter, 2+ pts at 78%. $91K has traded across 29 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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