The Prediction Markets

Ohio's 7th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$92K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Poindexter, 1+ pts 87.1%

Next is Poindexter, 2+ pts at 77%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Poindexter, 1+ pts
87.1%
Kalshi 87.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 90.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Poindexter, 1+ pts
Last price
87.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
90.1¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Poindexter, 2+ pts
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Poindexter, 2+ pts
Last price
77%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Poindexter, 4+ pts
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Poindexter, 4+ pts
Last price
65%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Poindexter, 6+ pts
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Poindexter, 6+ pts
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Poindexter, 8+ pts
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Poindexter, 8+ pts
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Poindexter, 10+ pts
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Poindexter, 10+ pts
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 12%+
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 12%+
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Poindexter, 12+ pts
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Poindexter, 12+ pts
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$396
Trade this on Kalshi
Poindexter, 14+ pts
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Poindexter, 14+ pts
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 0-3%
17%
Polymarket 17%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-3%
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 19 more outcomes
Democrat 9-12%
15.4%
Polymarket 15.4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 18.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $552 (5.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 9-12%
Last price
15.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
18.1¢
Sell Yes
12.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$552 (5.52x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 3-6%
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 3-6%
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 6-9%
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 6-9%
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Poindexter, 16+ pts
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Poindexter, 16+ pts
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Miller, 1+ pts
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Miller, 1+ pts
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
3.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Miller, 4+ pts
8.8%
Kalshi 8.8%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 8.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,136 (11.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Miller, 4+ pts
Last price
8.8%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
8.8¢
Sell Yes
4.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,136 (11.4x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 0-3%
8.3%
Polymarket 8.3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 10.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $952 (9.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-3%
Last price
8.3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
10.5¢
Sell Yes
6.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$952 (9.52x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Miller, 7+ pts
6.9%
Kalshi 6.9%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Miller, 7+ pts
Last price
6.9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Poindexter, 18+ pts
6.6%
Kalshi 6.6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Poindexter, 18+ pts
Last price
6.6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Poindexter, 20+ pts
5.1%
Kalshi 5.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 9.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,087 (10.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Poindexter, 20+ pts
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
9.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,087 (10.9x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Miller, 22+ pts
4.9%
Kalshi 4.9%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Miller, 22+ pts
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$969
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 6-9%
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 6-9%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
5.6¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,786 (17.9x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Miller, 16+ pts
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Miller, 16+ pts
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 3-6%
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 3-6%
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Miller, 10+ pts
2.2%
Kalshi 2.2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Miller, 10+ pts
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Miller, 13+ pts
2.2%
Kalshi 2.2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,724 (17.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Miller, 13+ pts
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 12%+
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 12%+
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Miller, 19+ pts
0.4%
Kalshi 0.4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
Miller, 19+ pts
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,381 (23.8x)
Volume
$664
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 9-12%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 9-12%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Ohio Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Poindexter, 1+ pts
  • Poindexter, 2+ pts
  • Poindexter, 4+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Poindexter, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Ohio's 7th District margin of victory". Poindexter, 1+ pts leads at 87.1%. Next is Poindexter, 2+ pts at 77%. $92K has traded across 29 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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