The Prediction Markets

Ohio's 9th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$38K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Kaptur, 1+ pts 70%

Next is Kaptur, 3+ pts at 65%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Kaptur, 1+ pts
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, just nowBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kaptur, 1+ pts
Last price
70%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$245
Trade this on Kalshi
Kaptur, 3+ pts
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, just nowBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kaptur, 3+ pts
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kaptur, 6+ pts
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, just nowBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kaptur, 6+ pts
Last price
52%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kaptur, 9+ pts
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, just nowBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kaptur, 9+ pts
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kaptur, 12+ pts
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, just nowBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kaptur, 12+ pts
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Merrin, 1+ pts
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Merrin, 1+ pts
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
9.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$316
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 12%+
19.5%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 12%+
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-3%
18.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-3%
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 3-6%
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 3-6%
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-3%
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-3%
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 11 more outcomes
Democrat 6-9%
12.2%
Polymarket 12.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 12.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $813 (8.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 6-9%
Last price
12.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
12.3¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$813 (8.13x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kaptur, 15+ pts
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, just nowBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kaptur, 15+ pts
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$383
Trade this on Kalshi
Merrin, 3+ pts
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Merrin, 3+ pts
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Merrin, 6+ pts
9.8%
Kalshi 9.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Merrin, 6+ pts
Last price
9.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,020 (10.2x)
Volume
$330
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 9-12%
8.6%
Polymarket 8.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 16.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $599 (5.99x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 9-12%
Last price
8.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
16.7¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$599 (5.99x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Merrin, 9+ pts
7.3%
Kalshi 7.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Merrin, 9+ pts
Last price
7.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$27
Trade this on Kalshi
Kaptur, 18+ pts
4.9%
Kalshi 4.9%polled, just nowBest Yes 8.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,136 (11.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kaptur, 18+ pts
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,136 (11.4x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 3-6%
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 3-6%
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
3.5¢
Sell Yes
3.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,857 (28.6x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 12%+
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 12%+
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4.3¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,326 (23.3x)
Volume
$841
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 9-12%
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 9-12%
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$831
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 6-9%
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 6-9%
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Kaptur, 1+ pts
  • Kaptur, 3+ pts
  • Kaptur, 6+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Kaptur, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Ohio's 9th District margin of victory". Kaptur, 1+ pts leads at 70%. Next is Kaptur, 3+ pts at 65%. $38K has traded across 21 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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