The Prediction Markets

Oklahoma Senate margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$15K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Hern, 17+ pts 86%

Next is Hern, 19+ pts at 86%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Hern, 17+ pts
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 94.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hern, 17+ pts
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
94.1¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$45
Trade this on Kalshi
Hern, 19+ pts
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hern, 19+ pts
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$90
Trade this on Kalshi
Hern, 21+ pts
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hern, 21+ pts
Last price
77%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$242
Trade this on Kalshi
Hern, 23+ pts
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hern, 23+ pts
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$363
Trade this on Kalshi
Hern, 25+ pts
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hern, 25+ pts
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$293
Trade this on Kalshi
Hern, 27+ pts
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hern, 27+ pts
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$655
Trade this on Kalshi
Hern, 29+ pts
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hern, 29+ pts
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$347
Trade this on Kalshi
Hern, 31+ pts
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hern, 31+ pts
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$15
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 20-25%
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 10-15%
17.4%
Polymarket 17.4%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 33.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $297 (2.97x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-15%
Last price
17.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33.7¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$297 (2.97x)
Volume
$460
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 11 more outcomes
Republican 15-20%
16.5%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 25-30%
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 30-35%
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30-35%
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hern, 33+ pts
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hern, 33+ pts
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$16
Trade this on Kalshi
Hern, 37+ pts
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hern, 37+ pts
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Hern, 35+ pts
7.6%
Kalshi 7.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hern, 35+ pts
Last price
7.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
7.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$69
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 35-40%
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 35-40%
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$613
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-10%
5.8%
Polymarket 5.8%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-10%
Last price
5.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$490
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 45%+
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 45%+
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$326
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat Wins
2%
Polymarket 2%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 3.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.3¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,030 (30.3x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 40-45%
1.9%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 40-45%
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,941 (29.4x)
Volume
$337
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Hern, 17+ pts
  • Hern, 19+ pts
  • Hern, 21+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Hern, 17+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oklahoma Senate margin of victory". Hern, 17+ pts leads at 86%. Next is Hern, 19+ pts at 86%. $15K has traded across 21 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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