The Prediction Markets

Oklahoma's 2nd District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$26K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Brecheen, 31+ pts 93.5%

Next is Brecheen, 34+ pts at 82.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Brecheen, 31+ pts
93.5%
Kalshi 93.5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brecheen, 31+ pts
Last price
93.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Brecheen, 34+ pts
82.5%
Kalshi 82.5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brecheen, 34+ pts
Last price
82.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Brecheen, 37+ pts
72.5%
Kalshi 72.5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brecheen, 37+ pts
Last price
72.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Brecheen, 40+ pts
62.5%
Kalshi 62.5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brecheen, 40+ pts
Last price
62.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Brecheen, 43+ pts
52.5%
Kalshi 52.5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brecheen, 43+ pts
Last price
52.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Brecheen, 46+ pts
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brecheen, 46+ pts
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Brecheen, 49+ pts
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brecheen, 49+ pts
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Brecheen, 52+ pts
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brecheen, 52+ pts
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$761
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 30-35%
24.5%
Polymarket 24.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30-35%
Last price
24.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 35-40%
23.5%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 35-40%
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
Brecheen, 55+ pts
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brecheen, 55+ pts
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
6.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 40-45%
13.9%
Polymarket 13.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $571 (5.71x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 40-45%
Last price
13.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17.5¢
Sell Yes
10.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$571 (5.71x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 45-50%
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 45-50%
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 50-55%
4.4%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 50-55%
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.6¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,786 (17.9x)
Volume
$447
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 60%+
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 60%+
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.1¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,408 (14.1x)
Volume
$357
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 55-60%
3.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,724 (17.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 55-60%
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$499
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 20-30%
3.2%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-30%
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,887 (18.9x)
Volume
$404
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-20%
1.5%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-20%
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$299
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat Wins
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$497
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Brecheen, 31+ pts
  • Brecheen, 34+ pts
  • Brecheen, 37+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Brecheen, 31+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oklahoma's 2nd District margin of victory". Brecheen, 31+ pts leads at 93.5%. Next is Brecheen, 34+ pts at 82.5%. $26K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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