The Prediction Markets

Oklahoma's 3rd District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$31K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Lucas, 24+ pts 93.1%

Next is Lucas, 27+ pts at 89%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Lucas, 24+ pts
93.1%
Kalshi 93.1%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 98.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lucas, 24+ pts
Last price
93.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.2¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Lucas, 27+ pts
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lucas, 27+ pts
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$8
Trade this on Kalshi
Lucas, 30+ pts
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lucas, 30+ pts
Last price
73%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$75
Trade this on Kalshi
Lucas, 33+ pts
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lucas, 33+ pts
Last price
68%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$166
Trade this on Kalshi
Lucas, 36+ pts
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lucas, 36+ pts
Last price
53%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Lucas, 39+ pts
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lucas, 39+ pts
Last price
47%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Lucas, 42+ pts
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lucas, 42+ pts
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 35-40%
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 35-40%
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lucas, 45+ pts
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lucas, 45+ pts
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$152
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 30-35%
17%
Polymarket 17%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $575 (5.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30-35%
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17.4¢
Sell Yes
16.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$575 (5.75x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
Lucas, 48+ pts
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lucas, 48+ pts
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
6.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 25-30%
11.4%
Polymarket 11.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
11.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 40-45%
10%
Polymarket 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 40-45%
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 45-50%
8.8%
Polymarket 8.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 45-50%
Last price
8.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.9¢
Sell Yes
8.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,124 (11.2x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-10%
5.9%
Polymarket 5.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-10%
Last price
5.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$552
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 50%+
3.7%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 50%+
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Volume
$791
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 20-25%
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.2¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,923 (19.2x)
Volume
$440
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 10-20%
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-20%
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat Wins
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$502
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Oklahoma State Election Board

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Lucas, 24+ pts
  • Lucas, 27+ pts
  • Lucas, 30+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Lucas, 24+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oklahoma's 3rd District margin of victory". Lucas, 24+ pts leads at 93.1%. Next is Lucas, 27+ pts at 89%. $31K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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