The Prediction Markets

Olivia Rodrigo 'you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love' First Week Album Sales?

Closed
Jun 19, 2026
Traded
$51K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jun 19, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 125 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
450k+
95.8%
Polymarket 97.5%(95.8% fair)polled, 3019 h agoBest Yes 97.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
450k+
Last price
97.5%
Fair, margin removed
95.8%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
97.9¢
Sell Yes
97¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
400k-450k
2.2%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 3019 h agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
400k-450k
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
350k-400k
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 3019 h agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
350k-400k
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
200k-250k
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 3019 h agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
200k-250k
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
200k
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 3019 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
200k
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
250k-300k
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3019 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
250k-300k
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
300k-350k
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3019 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
300k-350k
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 450k+
  • 400k-450k
  • 350k-400k

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Olivia Rodrigo 'you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love' First Week Album Sales?". 450k+ last traded at 95.8%. Next is 400k-450k at 2.2%. $51K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Jun 19, 2026.

Olivia Rodrigo's new album 'you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love' is expected to release June 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the debut week sales for Olivia Rodrigo's album 'you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love', according to Hits Daily Double. If the album 'you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love' has not been released by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the album’s debut week sales fall exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the "HITS TOP 50" list found at https://hitsdailydouble.com/sales_plus_streaming, specifically, the figure in the column titled "Activity", once the results are finalized for the album’s debut week. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another credible resolution source may be chosen.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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