The Prediction Markets

Ontario Liberal Party leadership election winner?

Closes
Nov 21, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$30K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Lee Fairclough 53.4%

Next is Navdeep Bains at 34.3%. The venues differ most on Lee Fairclough (Polymarket 55.5%, Kalshi 47%), a 8.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Lee FaircloughArb
53.4%
Polymarket 55.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 47%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lee Fairclough
Last price
55.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Lee Fairclough
Last price
47%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$738
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 51¢ and selling on Polymarket at 53¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

Navdeep Bains
34.3%
Polymarket 34%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 35%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
Navdeep Bains
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Navdeep Bains
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 32¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 36¢.

Aaron Gunn
21.5%
Polymarket 21.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Aaron Gunn
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Caroline Elliott
16.5%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Caroline Elliott
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Claire Rattée
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Claire Rattée
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Iain Black
8.4%
Polymarket 8.4%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 11.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $877 (8.77x)
Polymarket
Contract
Iain Black
Last price
8.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11.4¢
Sell Yes
5.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$877 (8.77x)
Volume
$605
Trade this on Polymarket
Stockwell Day
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Stockwell Day
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Stephanie Bowman
5.6%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 8%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 9.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,064 (10.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Stephanie Bowman
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,064 (10.6x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Stephanie Bowman
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$399
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 9.4¢.

Chip Wilson
5.6%
Polymarket 5.6%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chip Wilson
Last price
5.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
3.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$565
Trade this on Polymarket
Sheldon Clare
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sheldon Clare
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$477
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 3 more outcomes
Yuri Fulmer
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yuri Fulmer
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$762
Trade this on Polymarket
Dylan MarandoArb
1.9%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 7%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dylan Marando
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$961
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dylan Marando
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$144
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 80 bps before fees.

Eric Lombardi
0.3%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Eric Lombardi
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$553
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Eric Lombardi
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Lee Fairclough on Kalshi at 51¢, sell on Polymarket at 53¢ (200 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 10, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 21, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Ontario Liberal Party — Chief Returning Officer
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Nov 10, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 21, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Lee Fairclough
  • Navdeep Bains
  • Aaron Gunn

Live prices for Lee Fairclough

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Ontario Liberal Party leadership election winner?". Lee Fairclough leads at 53.4%. Next is Navdeep Bains at 34.3%. $30K has traded across 13 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 21, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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