The Prediction Markets

OpenAI IPO by...?

Closed
Oct 1, 2026
Traded
$3.0M
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Oct 1, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 19 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
June 30, 2027
62.6%
Polymarket 56.5%(62.6% fair)polled, 472 h agoBest Yes 67¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Polymarket
Contract
June 30, 2027
Last price
56.5%
Fair, margin removed
62.6%
As of
Polled 19 d ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$147
Trade this on Polymarket
March 31, 2027
33.2%
Polymarket 30%(33.2% fair)polled, 472 h agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
March 31, 2027
Last price
30%
Fair, margin removed
33.2%
As of
Polled 19 d ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$674
Trade this on Polymarket
December 31, 2026
4.2%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 472 h agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31, 2026
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled 19 d ago
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
3.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$1.0M
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • June 30, 2027
  • March 31, 2027
  • December 31, 2026

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Cover all 3 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "OpenAI IPO by...?". June 30, 2027 last traded at 62.6%. Next is March 31, 2027 at 33.2%. $3.0M has traded across 3 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Oct 1, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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