The Prediction Markets

Operário Ferroviário EC vs. Athletic Club

Starts in 26 minKickoff
Traded
$4K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Ferroviario 44.9%

Next is Draw at 29.5%. The venues differ most on Ferroviario (Polymarket 44.5%, Kalshi 46%), a 1.5-point gap.

Ferroviario 44.9%Draw 29.5%Athletic Club Sjdr 25.6%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Ferroviario
44.9%
Polymarket 44.5%polled, 57s agoKalshi 46%(45.1% fair)polled, 57s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Operário Ferroviário EC
Last price
44.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$432
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ferroviario
Last price
46%
Fair, margin removed
45.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$897
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 45¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 45¢.

Draw
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 57s agoKalshi 30%(29.4% fair)polled, 57s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Draw (Operário Ferroviário EC vs. Athletic Club)
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
30%
Fair, margin removed
29.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$12
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 29¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 30¢.

Athletic Club Sjdr
25.6%
Polymarket 25.5%polled, 57s agoKalshi 26%(25.5% fair)polled, 57s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Athletic Club
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Athletic Club Sjdr
Last price
26%
Fair, margin removed
25.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$235
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 26¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 26¢.

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Same bet: both settle on the 90-minute result

Both settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties excluded.

Only differs in an edge case

  • If the game is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: cbf.com.br
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, Fox Sports
Show full rule comparison
  • If the game is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up.
  • Both settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties excluded.
  • Trading closes Oct 23, 2026, 10:30 PM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 25, 2026, 10:30 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Ferroviario
  • Draw
  • Athletic Club Sjdr

Live prices for Ferroviario

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Cover all 3 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Operário Ferroviário EC vs. Athletic Club". Ferroviario leads at 44.9%. Next is Draw at 29.5%. $4K has traded across 3 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 23, 2026.

This event is for the upcoming Brazil Serie B game, scheduled for Friday, October 23, 2026 between Operário Ferroviário EC and Athletic Club.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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