The Prediction Markets

Oregon 04 House General Election: voter turnout

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 250K 95.5%

Next is Above 300K at 75%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 250K
95.5%
Kalshi 95.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 250K
Last price
95.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 300K
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 300K
Last price
75%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$192
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 320K
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 320K
Last price
67%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 340K
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 340K
Last price
55%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$9
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 360K
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 360K
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 380K
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 380K
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$429
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 400K
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 400K
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$342
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 420K
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 420K
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$118
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 430K
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 430K
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Oregon Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 250K
  • Above 300K
  • Above 320K

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oregon 04 House General Election: voter turnout". Above 250K leads at 95.5%. Next is Above 300K at 75%. $1K has traded across 9 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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