The Prediction Markets

Oregon Governor margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$39K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Kotek, 2+ pts 70%

Next is Kotek, 5+ pts at 49%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Kotek, 2+ pts
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kotek, 2+ pts
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kotek, 5+ pts
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kotek, 5+ pts
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kotek, 8+ pts
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kotek, 8+ pts
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kotek 6-9%
19.8%
Polymarket 19.8%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kotek 6-9%
Last price
19.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
19.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kotek 9-12%
18.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kotek 9-12%
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kotek, 11+ pts
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kotek, 11+ pts
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kotek 12-15%
12%
Polymarket 12%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kotek 12-15%
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Drazan 0-3%
10.1%
Polymarket 10.1%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 10.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $980 (9.80x)
Polymarket
Contract
Drazan 0-3%
Last price
10.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10.2¢
Sell Yes
9.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$980 (9.80x)
Volume
$530
Trade this on Polymarket
Kotek 0-3%
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 10.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $990 (9.90x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kotek 0-3%
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10.1¢
Sell Yes
8.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$990 (9.90x)
Volume
$705
Trade this on Polymarket
Kotek, 14+ pts
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kotek, 14+ pts
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 9 more outcomes
Drazan 6%+
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Drazan 6%+
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Drazan 3-6%
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Drazan 3-6%
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
5.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$490
Trade this on Polymarket
Kotek 3-6%
5.9%
Polymarket 5.9%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kotek 3-6%
Last price
5.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
5.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$927
Trade this on Polymarket
Kotek 18%+
4.2%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 7.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kotek 18%+
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.8¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,282 (12.8x)
Volume
$807
Trade this on Polymarket
Kotek, 17+ pts
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,064 (10.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kotek, 17+ pts
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,064 (10.6x)
Volume
$391
Trade this on Kalshi
Kotek, 23+ pts
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kotek, 23+ pts
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$34
Trade this on Kalshi
Kotek, 26+ pts
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kotek, 26+ pts
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Kotek 15-18%
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kotek 15-18%
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kotek, 20+ pts
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kotek, 20+ pts
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Kotek, 2+ pts
  • Kotek, 5+ pts
  • Kotek, 8+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Kotek, 2+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oregon Governor margin of victory". Kotek, 2+ pts leads at 70%. Next is Kotek, 5+ pts at 49%. $39K has traded across 19 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets