The Prediction Markets

Oregon Senate margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$14K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Merkley, 13+ pts 93.9%

Next is Merkley, 17+ pts at 91.4%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Merkley, 13+ pts
93.9%
Kalshi 93.9%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 98.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Merkley, 13+ pts
Last price
93.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.8¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Merkley, 17+ pts
91.4%
Kalshi 91.4%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 91.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Merkley, 17+ pts
Last price
91.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91.4¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$239
Trade this on Kalshi
Merkley, 15+ pts
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 96.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Merkley, 15+ pts
Last price
88%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96.9¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$31
Trade this on Kalshi
Merkley, 19+ pts
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Merkley, 19+ pts
Last price
73%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$658
Trade this on Kalshi
Merkley, 21+ pts
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Merkley, 21+ pts
Last price
66%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$437
Trade this on Kalshi
Merkley, 23+ pts
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Merkley, 23+ pts
Last price
57%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$34
Trade this on Kalshi
Merkley, 25+ pts
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Merkley, 25+ pts
Last price
44%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$86
Trade this on Kalshi
Merkley, 27+ pts
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Merkley, 27+ pts
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$34
Trade this on Kalshi
Merkley, 29+ pts
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Merkley, 29+ pts
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$46
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 25-30%
23%
Polymarket 23%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 10 more outcomes
Merkley, 31+ pts
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Merkley, 31+ pts
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$115
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 20-25%
19%
Polymarket 19%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 10-15%
15.4%
Polymarket 15.4%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 20.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $490 (4.90x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-15%
Last price
15.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20.4¢
Sell Yes
10.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$490 (4.90x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 15-20%
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-5%
9.2%
Polymarket 9.2%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 17.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $581 (5.81x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
9.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17.2¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$581 (5.81x)
Volume
$498
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 35%+
9.1%
Polymarket 9.1%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 17.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $581 (5.81x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35%+
Last price
9.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17.2¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$581 (5.81x)
Volume
$332
Trade this on Polymarket
Merkley, 33+ pts
7.5%
Kalshi 7.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Merkley, 33+ pts
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
7.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$27
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 5-10%
4.2%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 7.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5-10%
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.4¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,351 (13.5x)
Volume
$293
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 30-35%
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30-35%
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$524
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Merkley, 13+ pts
  • Merkley, 17+ pts
  • Merkley, 15+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Merkley, 13+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oregon Senate margin of victory". Merkley, 13+ pts leads at 93.9%. Next is Merkley, 17+ pts at 91.4%. $14K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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