The Prediction Markets

Oregon's 2nd District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$27K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Bentz, 11+ pts 89%

Next is Bentz, 14+ pts at 88.8%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Bentz, 11+ pts
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bentz, 11+ pts
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$634
Trade this on Kalshi
Bentz, 14+ pts
88.8%
Kalshi 88.8%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 94.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bentz, 14+ pts
Last price
88.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94.5¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Bentz, 17+ pts
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bentz, 17+ pts
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Bentz, 20+ pts
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bentz, 20+ pts
Last price
66%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Bentz, 23+ pts
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bentz, 23+ pts
Last price
55%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 20-25%
31.5%
Polymarket 31.5%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
31.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bentz, 26+ pts
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bentz, 26+ pts
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$33
Trade this on Kalshi
Bentz, 29+ pts
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bentz, 29+ pts
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 25-30%
24.4%
Polymarket 24.4%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 24.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $405 (4.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
24.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24.7¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$405 (4.05x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bentz, 32+ pts
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bentz, 32+ pts
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
6.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
Republican 15-20%
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bentz, 35+ pts
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bentz, 35+ pts
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat Wins
8.7%
Polymarket 8.7%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 16.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $610 (6.10x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
8.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16.4¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$610 (6.10x)
Volume
$847
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 10-15%
4.4%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-15%
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$933
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 30-35%
3.2%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30-35%
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$928
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-10%
1.9%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 2.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-10%
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.3¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,348 (43.5x)
Volume
$751
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 40%+
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 40%+
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$791
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 35-40%
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 35-40%
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$559
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Oregon Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Bentz, 11+ pts
  • Bentz, 14+ pts
  • Bentz, 17+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Bentz, 11+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oregon's 2nd District margin of victory". Bentz, 11+ pts leads at 89%. Next is Bentz, 14+ pts at 88.8%. $27K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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