The Prediction Markets

Oregon's 3rd District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$27K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Dexter, 41+ pts 94.8%

Next is Dexter, 38+ pts at 93.1%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Dexter, 41+ pts
94.8%
Kalshi 94.8%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 99.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dexter, 41+ pts
Last price
94.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.4¢
Sell Yes
90.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Dexter, 38+ pts
93.1%
Kalshi 93.1%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 99.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dexter, 38+ pts
Last price
93.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.5¢
Sell Yes
93.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Dexter, 44+ pts
92.9%
Kalshi 92.9%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 98.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dexter, 44+ pts
Last price
92.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.8¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Dexter, 47+ pts
86.7%
Kalshi 86.7%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 92.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dexter, 47+ pts
Last price
86.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92.4¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Dexter, 50+ pts
77.5%
Kalshi 77.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dexter, 50+ pts
Last price
77.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Dexter, 53+ pts
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dexter, 53+ pts
Last price
59%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
Dexter, 56+ pts
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dexter, 56+ pts
Last price
45%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$150
Trade this on Kalshi
Dexter, 59+ pts
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dexter, 59+ pts
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$165
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 45-50%
24%
Polymarket 24%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 45-50%
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 55-60%
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 55-60%
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 10 more outcomes
Democrat 60-65%
17%
Polymarket 17%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 60-65%
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dexter, 62+ pts
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dexter, 62+ pts
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 50-55%
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 50-55%
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dexter, 65+ pts
10.7%
Kalshi 10.7%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dexter, 65+ pts
Last price
10.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
5.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 40-45%
6.7%
Polymarket 6.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $855 (8.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 40-45%
Last price
6.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11.7¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$855 (8.55x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 65%+
4.6%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,163 (11.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 65%+
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.6¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,163 (11.6x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 35-40%
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35-40%
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$941
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 25-35%
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-35%
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-25%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-25%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$638
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Dexter, 41+ pts
  • Dexter, 38+ pts
  • Dexter, 44+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Dexter, 41+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oregon's 3rd District margin of victory". Dexter, 41+ pts leads at 94.8%. Next is Dexter, 38+ pts at 93.1%. $27K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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