The Prediction Markets

Oregon's 4th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$31K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Hoyle, 6+ pts 88%

Next is Hoyle, 9+ pts at 80.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Hoyle, 6+ pts
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, just nowBest Yes 97.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hoyle, 6+ pts
Last price
88%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97.2¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hoyle, 9+ pts
80.5%
Kalshi 80.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hoyle, 9+ pts
Last price
80.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Hoyle, 12+ pts
70.5%
Kalshi 70.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hoyle, 12+ pts
Last price
70.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Hoyle, 15+ pts
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, just nowBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hoyle, 15+ pts
Last price
66%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$55
Trade this on Kalshi
Hoyle, 18+ pts
50.5%
Kalshi 50.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hoyle, 18+ pts
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Hoyle, 21+ pts
40.5%
Kalshi 40.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hoyle, 21+ pts
Last price
40.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Hoyle, 24+ pts
29.5%
Kalshi 29.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hoyle, 24+ pts
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 20-25%
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 15-20%
24%
Polymarket 24%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hoyle, 27+ pts
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, just nowBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hoyle, 27+ pts
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$36
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
Democrat 25-30%
19.5%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
18.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hoyle, 30+ pts
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, just nowBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hoyle, 30+ pts
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 5-10%
6.8%
Polymarket 6.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,064 (10.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5-10%
Last price
6.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.4¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,064 (10.6x)
Volume
$697
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 10-15%
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-15%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 30-35%
4.4%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30-35%
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 35%+
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35%+
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-5%
2%
Polymarket 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$664
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Hoyle, 6+ pts
  • Hoyle, 9+ pts
  • Hoyle, 12+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Hoyle, 6+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oregon's 4th District margin of victory". Hoyle, 6+ pts leads at 88%. Next is Hoyle, 9+ pts at 80.5%. $31K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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