The Prediction Markets

Oregon's 5th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$28K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Bynum, 3+ pts 91.9%

Next is Bynum, 6+ pts at 85%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Bynum, 3+ pts
91.9%
Kalshi 91.9%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 95.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bynum, 3+ pts
Last price
91.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95.9¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bynum, 6+ pts
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 95.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bynum, 6+ pts
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95.2¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bynum, 9+ pts
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bynum, 9+ pts
Last price
82%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bynum, 12+ pts
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bynum, 12+ pts
Last price
74%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bynum, 15+ pts
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bynum, 15+ pts
Last price
61%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bynum, 18+ pts
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bynum, 18+ pts
Last price
46%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bynum, 21+ pts
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bynum, 21+ pts
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
Bynum, 24+ pts
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bynum, 24+ pts
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 20-25%
22.4%
Polymarket 22.4%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 23.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $424 (4.24x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
22.4%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
23.6¢
Sell Yes
21.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$424 (4.24x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 10-15%
16.9%
Polymarket 16.9%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 17.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $562 (5.62x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-15%
Last price
16.9%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
17.8¢
Sell Yes
15.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$562 (5.62x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Democrat 15-20%
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bynum, 27+ pts
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bynum, 27+ pts
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
6.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$580
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 25-30%
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 30%+
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30%+
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$408
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-5%
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 5-10%
4.4%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5-10%
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$299
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$567
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Bynum, 3+ pts
  • Bynum, 6+ pts
  • Bynum, 9+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Bynum, 3+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oregon's 5th District margin of victory". Bynum, 3+ pts leads at 91.9%. Next is Bynum, 6+ pts at 85%. $28K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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