The Prediction Markets

Oregon's 6th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$44K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Salinas, 7+ pts 95.4%

Next is Salinas, 10+ pts at 90.2%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Salinas, 7+ pts
95.4%
Kalshi 95.4%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 98.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Salinas, 7+ pts
Last price
95.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.3¢
Sell Yes
92.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Salinas, 10+ pts
90.2%
Kalshi 90.2%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 98.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Salinas, 10+ pts
Last price
90.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.3¢
Sell Yes
90.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Salinas, 13+ pts
90.1%
Kalshi 90.1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 97.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Salinas, 13+ pts
Last price
90.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97.7¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$15
Trade this on Kalshi
Salinas, 16+ pts
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Salinas, 16+ pts
Last price
78%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Salinas, 19+ pts
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Salinas, 19+ pts
Last price
66%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Salinas, 22+ pts
56.5%
Kalshi 56.5%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
Salinas, 22+ pts
Last price
56.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Salinas, 25+ pts
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Salinas, 25+ pts
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$303
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 20-25%
28.5%
Polymarket 28.5%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
28.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Salinas, 28+ pts
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Salinas, 28+ pts
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 25-30%
19.4%
Polymarket 19.4%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 21.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $474 (4.74x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
19.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21.1¢
Sell Yes
17.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$474 (4.74x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
Salinas, 31+ pts
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Salinas, 31+ pts
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
9.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$738
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 15-20%
18.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 30-35%
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 8.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,176 (11.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30-35%
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.5¢
Sell Yes
5.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,176 (11.8x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Salinas, 34+ pts
6.8%
Kalshi 6.8%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Salinas, 34+ pts
Last price
6.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 10-15%
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-15%
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 35%+
4.7%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35%+
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 5-10%
2.8%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5-10%
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-5%
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$277
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Salinas, 7+ pts
  • Salinas, 10+ pts
  • Salinas, 13+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Salinas, 7+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oregon's 6th District margin of victory". Salinas, 7+ pts leads at 95.4%. Next is Salinas, 10+ pts at 90.2%. $44K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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