The Prediction Markets

Oscar for Best Actor?

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$1.8M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

John Malkovich 53.9%

Next is Matt Damon at 36.8%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
John MalkovichArb
53.9%
Polymarket 44.1%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 87.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 42%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Malkovich
Last price
44.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
44.8¢
Sell Yes
43.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$223 (2.23x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
John Malkovich
Last price
87.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
John Malkovich
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$130K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 42¢ and selling on Polymarket at 87¢ nets 4500 bps before fees.

Matt DamonArb
36.8%
Polymarket 19%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 94.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 17%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matt Damon
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$46K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Matt Damon
Last price
94.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
95.6¢
Sell Yes
92.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Matt Damon
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$172K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 17¢ and selling on Polymarket at 92.6¢ nets 7560 bps before fees.

Andrew ScottArb
33.9%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 85%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 17%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andrew Scott
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Andrew Scott
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Andrew Scott
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$108K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 17¢ and selling on Polymarket at 84¢ nets 6700 bps before fees.

Paul Giamatti
27.5%
Polymarket 27.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paul Giamatti
Last price
27.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tom CruiseArb
26.9%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 65%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 15%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tom Cruise
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Tom Cruise
Last price
65%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tom Cruise
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$224K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 15¢ and selling on Polymarket at 63¢ nets 4800 bps before fees.

Andrew Garfield
25%
Polymarket 25%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andrew Garfield
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
John Turturro
16.5%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 46.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Turturro
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
John Turturro
Last price
46.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Robert PattinsonArb
14.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 44.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 6.6%polled, 35s agoKalshi 3%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert Pattinson
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Robert Pattinson
Last price
44.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Robert Pattinson
Last price
6.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.5¢
Sell Yes
5.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,333 (13.3x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Robert Pattinson
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$124K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 3¢ and selling on Polymarket at 42¢ nets 3900 bps before fees.

Ryan GoslingArb
11.7%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 43.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ryan Gosling
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Ryan Gosling
Last price
43.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ryan Gosling
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$60K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 42¢ nets 4000 bps before fees.

Guitarricadelafuente
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 10.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $917 (9.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Guitarricadelafuente
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10.9¢
Sell Yes
10.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$917 (9.17x)
Volume
$901
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 40 more outcomes
Anthony IppolitoArb
9.6%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 32%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anthony Ippolito
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$933
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Anthony Ippolito
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Anthony Ippolito
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$70K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 3¢ and selling on Polymarket at 30¢ nets 2700 bps before fees.

Timothée ChalametArb
6.1%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 10%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 6%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Timothée Chalamet
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Timothée Chalamet
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Timothée Chalamet
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$95K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 3.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 6¢ nets 280 bps before fees.

Jesse Plemons
5.6%
Polymarket 5.6%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jesse Plemons
Last price
5.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$175
Trade this on Polymarket
Sebastian StanArb
4.9%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 17.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sebastian Stan
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Sebastian Stan
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sebastian Stan
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 17¢ nets 1600 bps before fees.

Jaafar JacksonArb
4.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 15.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jaafar Jackson
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Jaafar Jackson
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jaafar Jackson
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$61K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 15¢ nets 1400 bps before fees.

Pedro PascalArb
4.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 14.8%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pedro Pascal
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Pedro Pascal
Last price
14.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16.4¢
Sell Yes
13.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$610 (6.10x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Pedro Pascal
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$57K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 13.2¢ nets 1220 bps before fees.

Sam Rockwell
4.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 7.6%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 6.8%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sam Rockwell
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Sam Rockwell
Last price
7.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
6.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Sam Rockwell
Last price
6.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
5.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
John Leguizamo
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Leguizamo
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$477
Trade this on Polymarket
Edward Norton
1.9%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Edward Norton
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$922
Trade this on Polymarket
Miles Teller
1.8%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Miles Teller
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$182
Trade this on Polymarket
Josh O'ConnorArb
1.8%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 5.4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josh O'Connor
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Josh O'Connor
Last price
5.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.5¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,176 (11.8x)
Volume
$225
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Josh O'Connor
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 2.3¢ nets 130 bps before fees.

Adam DriverArb
1.8%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 4.9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Adam Driver
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Adam Driver
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
3.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Adam Driver
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 3.3¢ nets 230 bps before fees.

John Goodman
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Goodman
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Robert Aramayo
1.5%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 2.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert Aramayo
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Robert Aramayo
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.1¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,439 (24.4x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Brad PittArb
1.4%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 3.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brad Pitt
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Brad Pitt
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Brad Pitt
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$43K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 1.1¢ nets 10 bps before fees.

Riz Ahmed
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Riz Ahmed
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$182
Trade this on Polymarket
Javier Bardem
1.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 4.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Javier Bardem
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Javier Bardem
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$499
Trade this on Polymarket
Channing Tatum
1.1%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 35s agoKalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Channing Tatum
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$246
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Channing Tatum
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Guy Pearce
1.1%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 1.3%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Guy Pearce
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$58
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Guy Pearce
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$714
Trade this on Polymarket
Michael Fassbender
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael Fassbender
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$292
Trade this on Polymarket
Tom Holland
1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 35s agoKalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tom Holland
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$924
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tom Holland
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Ethan Hawke
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ethan Hawke
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hanns Zischler
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hanns Zischler
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$245
Trade this on Kalshi
Jacob Tremblay
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jacob Tremblay
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$300
Trade this on Kalshi
Keanu Reeves
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Keanu Reeves
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sacha Baron Cohen
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sacha Baron Cohen
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$684
Trade this on Kalshi
Steve Buscemi
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Steve Buscemi
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$145
Trade this on Polymarket
Tie
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$43K
Trade this on Kalshi
Daniel Craig
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Daniel Craig
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$156
Trade this on Polymarket
Robert De Niro
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert De Niro
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$154
Trade this on Polymarket
Andrew Scott
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Adam Scott
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$181
Trade this on Polymarket
Colman Domingo
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Colman Domingo
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$296
Trade this on Polymarket
Himesh Patel
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Himesh Patel
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$168
Trade this on Polymarket
Yura Borisov
0.7%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yura Borisov
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Yura Borisov
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Jeremy Strong
0.7%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 0.5%polled, 35s agoKalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jeremy Strong
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Jeremy Strong
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Jeremy Strong
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$158
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jeremy Strong
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$70K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

James Ortiz
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
James Ortiz
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$172
Trade this on Polymarket
Skyler Gisondo
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Skyler Gisondo
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Polymarket
Charles Melton
0.6%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 35s agoKalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Charles Melton
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$872
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Charles Melton
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$606
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Mahershala Ali
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mahershala Ali
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$58
Trade this on Polymarket
Travis Scott
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Travis Scott
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$361
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Matt Damon on Kalshi at 17¢, sell on Polymarket at 92.6¢ (7560 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: oscars.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • John Malkovich
  • Matt Damon
  • Andrew Scott

Live prices for John Malkovich

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscar for Best Actor?". John Malkovich leads at 53.9%. Next is Matt Damon at 36.8%. $1.8M has traded across 50 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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