The Prediction Markets

Oscar for Best Director?

Closes
Dec 31, 2027, in 14 months
Traded
$320K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Javier Calvo 87.5%

Next is Javier Ambrossi at 81.5%. The venues differ most on Na Hong-jin (Polymarket 5.5%, Kalshi 1%), a 4.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Javier Calvo
87.5%
Polymarket 87.5%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
Contract
Javier Calvo
Last price
87.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$646
Trade this on Polymarket
Javier Ambrossi
81.5%
Polymarket 81.5%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Polymarket
Contract
Javier Ambrossi
Last price
81.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$603
Trade this on Polymarket
Christopher NolanArb
66.1%
Polymarket 62%polled, 27s agoPolymarket 90.4%polled, 27s agoKalshi 56%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Polymarket
Contract
Christopher Nolan
Last price
62%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Christopher Nolan
Last price
90.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93.1¢
Sell Yes
87.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$107 (1.07x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Christopher Nolan
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$88K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 56¢ and selling on Polymarket at 87.6¢ nets 3160 bps before fees.

Nathan Fielder
57.3%
Polymarket 57.3%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 66.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nathan Fielder
Last price
57.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66.9¢
Sell Yes
47.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Denis VilleneuveArb
24.2%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 27s agoPolymarket 49.5%polled, 27s agoKalshi 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Denis Villeneuve
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Denis Villeneuve
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$614
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Denis Villeneuve
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$32K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 17¢ and selling on Polymarket at 47¢ nets 3000 bps before fees.

Ryusuke Hamaguchi
21.9%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 27s agoPolymarket 29%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ryusuke Hamaguchi
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$255
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Ryusuke Hamaguchi
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Martin McDonaghArb
19.4%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 27s agoPolymarket 68%polled, 27s agoKalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Martin McDonagh
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$544
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Martin McDonagh
Last price
68%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Martin McDonagh
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 4¢ and selling on Polymarket at 61¢ nets 5700 bps before fees.

Javier Calvo or Javier Ambrossi
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Javier Calvo or Javier Ambrossi
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$925
Trade this on Polymarket
Cristian Mungiu
15.2%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 27s agoPolymarket 20%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cristian Mungiu
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$255
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Cristian Mungiu
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Olivia WildeArb
13%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 27s agoPolymarket 48.5%polled, 27s agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Olivia Wilde
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$603
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Olivia Wilde
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Olivia Wilde
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 45¢ nets 4400 bps before fees.

Show 29 more outcomes
Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Alejandro González Iñárritu
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alejandro González Iñárritu
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$642
Trade this on Polymarket
Christopher Miller
10%
Polymarket 10%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Christopher Miller
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Curry Barker
9.6%
Polymarket 9.6%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 10.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $935 (9.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Curry Barker
Last price
9.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10.7¢
Sell Yes
8.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$935 (9.35x)
Volume
$102
Trade this on Polymarket
Paweł Pawlikowski
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paweł Pawlikowski
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$364
Trade this on Polymarket
Phil Lord
9.2%
Polymarket 9.2%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 12.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $820 (8.20x)
Polymarket
Contract
Phil Lord
Last price
9.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12.2¢
Sell Yes
6.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$820 (8.20x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tony Gilroy
6.3%
Polymarket 6.3%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tony Gilroy
Last price
6.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$589
Trade this on Polymarket
Jesse EisenbergArb
5.6%
Polymarket 1%polled, 27s agoPolymarket 19.5%polled, 27s agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jesse Eisenberg
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$502
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Jesse Eisenberg
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$618
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jesse Eisenberg
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 16¢ nets 1500 bps before fees.

Beth de Araujo
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Beth de Araujo
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$911
Trade this on Polymarket
Peter Farrelly
5.2%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 27s agoPolymarket 13.5%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Peter Farrelly
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.2¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,381 (23.8x)
Volume
$719
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Peter Farrelly
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$227
Trade this on Polymarket
Lance Oppenheim
5.1%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 8.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,220 (12.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lance Oppenheim
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.2¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,220 (12.2x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ben AffleckArb
3.6%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 27s agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ben Affleck
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ben Affleck
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$293
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 3¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

Janus Metz PedersenArb
3.6%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 27s agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Janus Metz Pedersen
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$607
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Janus Metz Pedersen
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$140
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 3¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

Na Hong-jinArb
3.3%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 27s agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Na Hong-jin
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Na Hong-jin
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$989
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 4¢ nets 300 bps before fees.

James Ashcroft
2.8%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
James Ashcroft
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$392
Trade this on Polymarket
David FincherArb
2.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 27s agoPolymarket 8%polled, 27s agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
David Fincher
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$37
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
David Fincher
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$120
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
David Fincher
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 3¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

Andrew HaighArb
2.2%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 27s agoPolymarket 5.5%polled, 27s agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andrew Haigh
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$37
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Andrew Haigh
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$161
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Andrew Haigh
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$315
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 3¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

Danny BoyleArb
2.1%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 27s agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Danny Boyle
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$690
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Danny Boyle
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 4¢ nets 300 bps before fees.

Phil Lord & Christopher Miller
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Phil Lord & Christopher Miller
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Aaron Sorkin
1.9%
Polymarket 1%polled, 27s agoPolymarket 4%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Aaron Sorkin
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$518
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Aaron Sorkin
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$223
Trade this on Polymarket
Joel CoenArb
1.8%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 27s agoPolymarket 4.2%polled, 27s agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Joel Coen
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$49
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Joel Coen
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.1¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,408 (14.1x)
Volume
$436
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Joel Coen
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$779
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 1.2¢ nets 20 bps before fees.

Steven Spielberg
1.6%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 27s agoPolymarket 3.6%polled, 27s agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Steven Spielberg
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$512
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Steven Spielberg
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Steven Spielberg
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Phil Lord or Christopher Miller
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Phil Lord or Christopher Miller
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$611
Trade this on Polymarket
Alejandro G. Iñárritu
1.3%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 27s agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alejandro G. Iñárritu
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Alejandro G. Iñárritu
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Mike Leigh
1.1%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 27s agoPolymarket 1.9%polled, 27s agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mike Leigh
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$49
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Mike Leigh
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$468
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mike Leigh
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Tie
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
David O. Russell
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
David O. Russell
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$403
Trade this on Polymarket
Bassam Tariq
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bassam Tariq
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$430
Trade this on Polymarket
Jordan Firstman
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jordan Firstman
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$483
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Martin McDonagh on Kalshi at 4¢, sell on Polymarket at 61¢ (5700 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: oscars.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Javier Calvo
  • Javier Ambrossi
  • Christopher Nolan

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Javier Calvo for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscar for Best Director?". Javier Calvo leads at 87.5%. Next is Javier Ambrossi at 81.5%. $320K has traded across 39 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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