The Prediction Markets

Oscar nominations for Best Actor?

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$925K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Paul Giamatti 93%

Next is John Leguizamo at 73.5%. The venues differ most on Andrew Garfield (Polymarket 80%, Kalshi 5%), a 75-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Paul Giamatti
93%
Polymarket 93%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paul Giamatti
Last price
93%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$673
Trade this on Polymarket
John Leguizamo
73.5%
Polymarket 73.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Leguizamo
Last price
73.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Guitarricadelafuente
71%
Polymarket 71%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 77¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Polymarket
Contract
Guitarricadelafuente
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
John Malkovich
69.7%
Polymarket 43.8%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 87.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 88%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 44.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $225 (2.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Malkovich
Last price
43.8%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
44.5¢
Sell Yes
43.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$225 (2.25x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
John Malkovich
Last price
87.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
John Malkovich
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Matt Damon
63.2%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 94.2%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 93%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matt Damon
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$45K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Matt Damon
Last price
94.2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
95.8¢
Sell Yes
92.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Matt Damon
Last price
93%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$35K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Andrew Scott
60.3%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 85%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 84%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andrew Scott
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Andrew Scott
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Andrew Scott
Last price
84%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Tom Cruise
48.9%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 61%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 61%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tom Cruise
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Tom Cruise
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tom Cruise
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$71K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Edward Norton
47.5%
Polymarket 47.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 61¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Polymarket
Contract
Edward Norton
Last price
47.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ryan Gosling
33.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 44%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 44%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ryan Gosling
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Ryan Gosling
Last price
44%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ryan Gosling
Last price
44%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$58K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Robert Pattinson
32.2%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 48.5%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 27%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 50%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert Pattinson
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Robert Pattinson
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Robert Pattinson
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Robert Pattinson
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$45K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Show 41 more outcomes
John Turturro
31.3%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 51.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 43%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Turturro
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
John Turturro
Last price
51.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
John Turturro
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Anthony Ippolito
27.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 34%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 38%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anthony Ippolito
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$761
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Anthony Ippolito
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Anthony Ippolito
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Andrew Garfield
23.8%
Polymarket 80%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andrew Garfield
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Andrew Garfield
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Sam Rockwell
21.8%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 7.6%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 73.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 6%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sam Rockwell
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Sam Rockwell
Last price
7.6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
8.3¢
Sell Yes
6.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,205 (12.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Sam Rockwell
Last price
73.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$858
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sam Rockwell
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Colman Domingo
20.5%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Colman Domingo
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$23
Trade this on Polymarket
John Goodman
13.9%
Polymarket 13.9%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 14.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $685 (6.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Goodman
Last price
13.9%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
14.6¢
Sell Yes
13.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$685 (6.85x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Riz Ahmed
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Riz Ahmed
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Pedro Pascal
11.3%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 15.3%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 15%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pedro Pascal
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Pedro Pascal
Last price
15.3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
17.2¢
Sell Yes
13.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$581 (5.81x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Pedro Pascal
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$42K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Steve Buscemi
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Steve Buscemi
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$103
Trade this on Polymarket
Timothée Chalamet
10.9%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 11.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 15%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Timothée Chalamet
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
4.3¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,326 (23.3x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Timothée Chalamet
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Timothée Chalamet
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Sebastian Stan
10.7%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 16.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 13%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sebastian Stan
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Sebastian Stan
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sebastian Stan
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Jaafar Jackson
10.1%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 16%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 12%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jaafar Jackson
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Jaafar Jackson
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jaafar Jackson
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$37K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Yura Borisov
8.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 13%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yura Borisov
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Yura Borisov
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Michael Fassbender
7.8%
Polymarket 7.8%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 12.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $806 (8.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael Fassbender
Last price
7.8%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
12.4¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$806 (8.06x)
Volume
$57
Trade this on Polymarket
Antonio Banderas
7.7%
Polymarket 7.7%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Antonio Banderas
Last price
7.7%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
5.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Mahershala Ali
7.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 10%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mahershala Ali
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$58
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mahershala Ali
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Skyler Gisondo
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Skyler Gisondo
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$474
Trade this on Polymarket
Miles Teller
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 8.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,136 (11.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Miles Teller
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
8.8¢
Sell Yes
5.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,136 (11.4x)
Volume
$341
Trade this on Polymarket
James Ortiz
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
James Ortiz
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$224
Trade this on Polymarket
Keanu Reeves
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Keanu Reeves
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Channing Tatum
5.5%
Polymarket 7%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Channing Tatum
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
8.5¢
Sell Yes
5.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,176 (11.8x)
Volume
$173
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Channing Tatum
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Jeremy Strong
4.1%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 0.6%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 11.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 4%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jeremy Strong
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Jeremy Strong
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Jeremy Strong
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jeremy Strong
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Dominic Sessa
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dominic Sessa
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jeremy Allen White
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jeremy Allen White
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Guy Pearce
3.9%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 4.6%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 6%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Guy Pearce
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$58
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Guy Pearce
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$473
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Guy Pearce
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$176
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Himesh Patel
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Himesh Patel
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Josh O'Connor
3.4%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 6.4%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 6%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josh O'Connor
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Josh O'Connor
Last price
6.4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
7.7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,299 (13.0x)
Volume
$225
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Josh O'Connor
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Adam Driver
3.3%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 6.2%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 4%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Adam Driver
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Adam Driver
Last price
6.2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
7.4¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,351 (13.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Adam Driver
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Andrew Scott
2.8%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Adam Scott
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
3.4¢
Sell Yes
3.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,941 (29.4x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Adam Scott
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Jesse Plemons
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jesse Plemons
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Robert De Niro
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert De Niro
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$658
Trade this on Polymarket
Charles Melton
2.1%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Charles Melton
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Charles Melton
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Tom Holland
2%
Polymarket 3%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tom Holland
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tom Holland
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Robert Aramayo
1.8%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 2.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert Aramayo
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Robert Aramayo
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Robert Aramayo
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Brad Pitt
1.7%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 4.4%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brad Pitt
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Brad Pitt
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Brad Pitt
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Javier Bardem
1.4%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 4.3%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Javier Bardem
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Javier Bardem
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
7.8¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,282 (12.8x)
Volume
$499
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Javier Bardem
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Daniel Craig
1.4%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Daniel Craig
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ethan Hawke
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ethan Hawke
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hanns Zischler
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hanns Zischler
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$110
Trade this on Kalshi
Robert DeNiro
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Robert DeNiro
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$204
Trade this on Kalshi
Sacha Baron Cohen
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sacha Baron Cohen
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$514
Trade this on Kalshi

Venue prices are 2 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: oscars.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Paul Giamatti
  • John Leguizamo
  • Guitarricadelafuente

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Paul Giamatti for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscar nominations for Best Actor?". Paul Giamatti leads at 93%. Next is John Leguizamo at 73.5%. $925K has traded across 51 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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