The Prediction Markets

Oscar nominations for Best Actress?

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$551K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Julianne Moore 83.7%

Next is Samantha Morton at 69.5%. The venues differ most on Kirsten Dunst (Polymarket 1.2%, Kalshi 7%), a 5.8-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

1 of 88 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Julianne MooreArb
83.7%
Polymarket 74.5%live, just nowPolymarket 95%polled, 45s agoKalshi 91%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Julianne Moore
Price
74.5%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$100K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Julianne Moore
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Julianne Moore
Last price
91%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 75¢ and selling on Kalshi at 91¢ nets 1600 bps before fees.

Samantha Morton
69.5%
Polymarket 69.5%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
Samantha Morton
Last price
69.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tao Okamoto
62%
Polymarket 62%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tao Okamoto
Last price
62%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$654
Trade this on Polymarket
Amanda Seyfried
58%
Polymarket 58%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Amanda Seyfried
Last price
58%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Olivia WildeArb
50.8%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 45s agoPolymarket 68.5%polled, 45s agoKalshi 67%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Olivia Wilde
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$90
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Olivia Wilde
Last price
68.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Olivia Wilde
Last price
67%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 61¢ nets 6010 bps before fees.

Inde NavarretteArb
44.8%
Polymarket 17%polled, 45s agoPolymarket 1.1%polled, 45s agoPolymarket 79%polled, 45s agoKalshi 82%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Inde Navarrette
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$32K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Inde Navarrette
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$486
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Inde Navarrette
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Inde Navarrette
Last price
82%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$137K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 78¢ nets 7680 bps before fees.

Sandra HüllerArb
40.6%
Polymarket 5.3%polled, 45s agoPolymarket 24.5%polled, 45s agoPolymarket 64.5%polled, 45s agoKalshi 68%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sandra Hüller
Last price
5.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
4.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Sandra Hüller
Last price
24.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$468
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Sandra Hüller
Last price
64.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sandra Hüller
Last price
68%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 5.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 63¢ nets 5710 bps before fees.

Kate O'Flynn
38.5%
Polymarket 38.5%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kate O'Flynn
Last price
38.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$201
Trade this on Polymarket
Olivia Colman
36.5%
Polymarket 36.5%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Olivia Colman
Last price
36.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$310
Trade this on Polymarket
Renate ReinsveArb
36.4%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 45s agoPolymarket 48%polled, 45s agoKalshi 52%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Renate Reinsve
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Renate Reinsve
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Renate Reinsve
Last price
52%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 2.5¢ and selling on Kalshi at 42¢ nets 3950 bps before fees.

Show 31 more outcomes
Penélope CruzArb
35.1%
Polymarket 74.5%polled, 45s agoPolymarket 5.2%polled, 45s agoKalshi 3%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Penélope Cruz
Last price
74.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Penélope Cruz
Last price
5.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$618
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Penélope Cruz
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 7¢ and selling on Polymarket at 73¢ nets 6600 bps before fees.

Ruth MadeleyArb
33.3%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 45s agoPolymarket 44.5%polled, 45s agoKalshi 44%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ruth Madeley
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$811
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Ruth Madeley
Last price
44.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$792
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ruth Madeley
Last price
44%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1.3¢ and selling on Kalshi at 39¢ nets 3770 bps before fees.

Virginie EfiraArb
33%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 45s agoPolymarket 43%polled, 45s agoKalshi 44%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Virginie Efira
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$289
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Virginie Efira
Last price
43%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Virginie Efira
Last price
44%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 40¢ nets 3810 bps before fees.

Mariana di Girolamo
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mariana di Girolamo
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Anne HathawayArb
25.9%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 45s agoPolymarket 87.5%polled, 45s agoPolymarket 4.7%polled, 45s agoKalshi 11%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anne Hathaway
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$70
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Anne Hathaway
Last price
87.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Anne Hathaway
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$958
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Anne Hathaway
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 11¢ and selling on Polymarket at 86¢ nets 7500 bps before fees.

Parker Posey
20%
Polymarket 20%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Parker Posey
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Merritt Wever
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Merritt Wever
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$223
Trade this on Polymarket
Rosalind EleazarArb
10.7%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 45s agoPolymarket 12.5%polled, 45s agoKalshi 15%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rosalind Eleazar
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$62
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Rosalind Eleazar
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Rosalind Eleazar
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 13¢ nets 1230 bps before fees.

Daisy Edgar-Jones
9.1%
Polymarket 9.2%polled, 45s agoKalshi 9%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Daisy Edgar-Jones
Last price
9.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13.7¢
Sell Yes
4.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$730 (7.30x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Daisy Edgar-Jones
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4.7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 9¢.

Gemma Chan
9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gemma Chan
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$81
Trade this on Polymarket
Emily BluntArb
8.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 45s agoPolymarket 11.1%polled, 45s agoKalshi 11%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Emily Blunt
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$70
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Emily Blunt
Last price
11.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11.6¢
Sell Yes
10.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$862 (8.62x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Emily Blunt
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 11¢ nets 1030 bps before fees.

ZendayaArb
8%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 45s agoPolymarket 4.4%polled, 45s agoKalshi 5%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 5.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Zendaya
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$732
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Zendaya
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$281
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Zendaya
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 6¢ and selling on Polymarket at 16¢ nets 1000 bps before fees.

Michelle Monaghan
6.6%
Polymarket 5.7%polled, 45s agoKalshi 7%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michelle Monaghan
Last price
5.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.6¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,163 (11.6x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Michelle Monaghan
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$144
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2.7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Betty Gilpin
6.3%
Polymarket 6.3%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 10.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $980 (9.80x)
Polymarket
Contract
Betty Gilpin
Last price
6.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10.2¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$980 (9.80x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Polymarket
Natalie Portman
6.2%
Polymarket 6.3%polled, 45s agoKalshi 6%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Natalie Portman
Last price
6.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
5.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$813
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Natalie Portman
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$132
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Dakota Johnson
5.9%
Polymarket 5.7%polled, 45s agoKalshi 6%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dakota Johnson
Last price
5.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.8¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,136 (11.4x)
Volume
$302
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dakota Johnson
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$865
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Shailene Woodley
5.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 45s agoKalshi 7%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 5.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Shailene Woodley
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$453
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Shailene Woodley
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5.5¢.

Mikey MadisonArb
5.7%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 45s agoPolymarket 8.5%polled, 45s agoKalshi 7%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mikey Madison
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$62
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Mikey Madison
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$556
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mikey Madison
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 4¢ nets 330 bps before fees.

Isabella Rossellini
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Isabella Rossellini
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$140
Trade this on Polymarket
Michelle WilliamsArb
5.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 45s agoPolymarket 6.5%polled, 45s agoKalshi 7%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michelle Williams
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$386
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Michelle Williams
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.8¢
Sell Yes
5.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,282 (12.8x)
Volume
$898
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Michelle Williams
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 80 bps before fees.

Sophie Okonedo
4.9%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 45s agoPolymarket 6.2%polled, 45s agoKalshi 7%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sophie Okonedo
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$230
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Sophie Okonedo
Last price
6.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.7¢
Sell Yes
4.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,299 (13.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sophie Okonedo
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$757
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4.7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Laura Linney
4.8%
Polymarket 7.1%polled, 45s agoKalshi 4%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Laura Linney
Last price
7.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.6¢
Sell Yes
4.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,042 (10.4x)
Volume
$301
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Laura Linney
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 9¢.

Cynthia ErivoArb
4.6%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 45s agoPolymarket 6%polled, 45s agoKalshi 6%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cynthia Erivo
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$70
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Cynthia Erivo
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Cynthia Erivo
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 6¢ nets 530 bps before fees.

Scarlett JohanssonArb
4.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 45s agoPolymarket 3.3%polled, 45s agoKalshi 7%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Scarlett Johansson
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Scarlett Johansson
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$605
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Scarlett Johansson
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 3¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

Kirsten Dunst
4.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 45s agoKalshi 7%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kirsten Dunst
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$976
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kirsten Dunst
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2.2¢.

Joan CollinsArb
3.9%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 45s agoPolymarket 5.1%polled, 45s agoKalshi 5%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Joan Collins
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$70
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Joan Collins
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
4.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Joan Collins
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$660
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 4¢ nets 330 bps before fees.

Margaret Qualley
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Margaret Qualley
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$97
Trade this on Polymarket
Danielle Deadwyler
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Danielle Deadwyler
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lily Gladstone
1.3%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 45s agoKalshi 1%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lily Gladstone
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$673
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Lily Gladstone
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$685
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2.4¢.

Rachel Brosnahan
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rachel Brosnahan
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$287
Trade this on Polymarket
Léa Seydoux
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Léa Seydoux
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$927
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Inde Navarrette on Polymarket at 1.2¢, sell on Kalshi at 78¢ (7680 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: oscars.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Julianne Moore
  • Samantha Morton
  • Tao Okamoto

Live prices for Julianne Moore

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscar nominations for Best Actress?". Julianne Moore leads at 83.7%. Next is Samantha Morton at 69.5%. $551K has traded across 41 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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