The Prediction Markets

Oscar nominations for Best Adapted Screenplay?

Closes
Dec 31, 2027, in 14 months
Traded
$143K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Wild Horse Nine 92.5%

Next is The Debut at 85%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Wild Horse Nine
92.5%
Polymarket 92.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
92.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$864
Trade this on Polymarket
The Debut
85%
Polymarket 85%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Debut
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$924
Trade this on Polymarket
Project Hail MaryArb
58.1%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 78%polled, 24s agoKalshi 76%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 3.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.3¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,030 (30.3x)
Volume
$772
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
78%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$830
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
76%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 3.3¢ and selling on Kalshi at 73¢ nets 6970 bps before fees.

Club Kid
55%
Polymarket 55%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
Club Kid
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
The Black BallArb
54.5%
Polymarket 47%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 2.1%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 86%polled, 24s agoKalshi 83%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
86%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$778
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
83%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 3.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 83¢ nets 7980 bps before fees.

The InviteArb
51.8%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 3.9%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 94%polled, 24s agoKalshi 89%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Invite
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Invite
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$595
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Invite
Last price
94%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96.6¢
Sell Yes
91.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$569
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Invite
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 6.7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 86¢ nets 7930 bps before fees.

The OdysseyArb
51.4%
Polymarket 22%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 4%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 88.5%polled, 24s agoKalshi 91%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,316 (13.2x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
88.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$154
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
91%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 7.6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 91¢ nets 8340 bps before fees.

Obsession
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Polymarket
Contract
Obsession
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$720
Trade this on Polymarket
Fjord
46.5%
Polymarket 46.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fjord
Last price
46.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
All of a SuddenArb
46.3%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 58.5%polled, 24s agoKalshi 63%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
All of a Sudden
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$979
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
All of a Sudden
Last price
58.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$734
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
All of a Sudden
Last price
63%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 57¢ nets 5610 bps before fees.

Show 20 more outcomes
Behemoth!
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Behemoth!
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$521
Trade this on Polymarket
Dune: Part ThreeArb
21.5%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 26%polled, 24s agoKalshi 30%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$658
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$476
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 30¢ nets 2980 bps before fees.

The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff BoothArb
20.1%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 27.2%polled, 24s agoKalshi 24%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$631
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
27.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34.6¢
Sell Yes
19.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$289 (2.89x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 4.7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 19¢ nets 1430 bps before fees.

The Drama
20%
Polymarket 20%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Drama
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Elsinore
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elsinore
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$249
Trade this on Polymarket
Digger
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Digger
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
InkArb
12.4%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 15%polled, 24s agoKalshi 24%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ink
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Ink
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ink
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$708
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 18¢ nets 1780 bps before fees.

Josephine
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josephine
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Polymarket
ClarissaArb
9.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 13.5%polled, 24s agoKalshi 11%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Clarissa
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$382
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Clarissa
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Clarissa
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 8¢ nets 720 bps before fees.

WildwoodArb
5.4%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 6%polled, 24s agoKalshi 8%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wildwood
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$793
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Wildwood
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wildwood
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 7¢ nets 680 bps before fees.

Saturn Return
4.7%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 14.3%polled, 24s agoKalshi 2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Saturn Return
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$542
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Saturn Return
Last price
14.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$46
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Saturn Return
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Cry to HeavenArb
4.6%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 4%polled, 24s agoKalshi 10%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cry to Heaven
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$421
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Cry to Heaven
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Cry to Heaven
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$460
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 9¢ nets 810 bps before fees.

The Social Reckoning
4.2%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 3.6%polled, 24s agoKalshi 6%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Social Reckoning
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$465
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Social Reckoning
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$386
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Social Reckoning
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2.4¢.

Fatherland
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fatherland
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$527
Trade this on Polymarket
Toy Story 5Arb
3.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 3.1%polled, 24s agoKalshi 7%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Toy Story 5
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$543
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Toy Story 5
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Toy Story 5
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 3¢ nets 220 bps before fees.

Forgotten Island
3.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Forgotten Island
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$110
Trade this on Polymarket
The Whisper ManArb
3.1%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 4.3%polled, 24s agoKalshi 5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Whisper Man
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$407
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Whisper Man
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$371
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Whisper Man
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$326
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 2¢ nets 130 bps before fees.

A Place in Hell
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
A Place in Hell
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$531
Trade this on Polymarket
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$754
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy The Odyssey on Polymarket at 7.6¢, sell on Kalshi at 91¢ (8340 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: oscars.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Wild Horse Nine
  • The Debut
  • Project Hail Mary

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Wild Horse Nine for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscar nominations for Best Adapted Screenplay?". Wild Horse Nine leads at 92.5%. Next is The Debut at 85%. $143K has traded across 30 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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