The Prediction Markets

Oscar nominations for Best Animated Feature Film?

Closes
Dec 31, 2027, in 14 months
Traded
$166K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Wildwood 84.9%

Next is God is Shy at 69%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
WildwoodArb
84.9%
Polymarket 77%polled, 41s agoPolymarket 90.5%polled, 41s agoKalshi 95%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 78¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wildwood
Last price
77%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Wildwood
Last price
90.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wildwood
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 78¢ and selling on Kalshi at 95¢ nets 1700 bps before fees.

God is Shy
69%
Polymarket 69%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
God is Shy
Last price
69%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$140
Trade this on Polymarket
Paper Trail
57.5%
Polymarket 57.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 62¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paper Trail
Last price
57.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Because Today is Saturday
56%
Polymarket 56%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Because Today is Saturday
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dollhouse Elephant
52%
Polymarket 52%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dollhouse Elephant
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
What We Leave Behind
51.5%
Polymarket 51.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 74¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
What We Leave Behind
Last price
51.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Toy Story 5Arb
51.3%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 41s agoPolymarket 85%polled, 41s agoKalshi 87%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Toy Story 5
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Toy Story 5
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Toy Story 5
Last price
87%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 11¢ and selling on Kalshi at 87¢ nets 7600 bps before fees.

Forgotten IslandArb
44.7%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 41s agoPolymarket 58.5%polled, 41s agoKalshi 59%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Forgotten Island
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Forgotten Island
Last price
58.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Forgotten Island
Last price
59%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 3.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 54¢ nets 5020 bps before fees.

Dog Alone
43%
Polymarket 43%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dog Alone
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Iron BoyArb
42.7%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 41s agoPolymarket 56%polled, 41s agoKalshi 61%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Iron Boy
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$828
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Iron Boy
Last price
56%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$590
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Iron Boy
Last price
61%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 52¢ nets 5190 bps before fees.

Show 10 more outcomes
Ray GunnArb
41.6%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 41s agoPolymarket 67%polled, 41s agoKalshi 68%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ray Gunn
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Ray Gunn
Last price
67%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ray Gunn
Last price
68%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 2.7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 63¢ nets 6030 bps before fees.

Please
40.5%
Polymarket 40.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
Contract
Please
Last price
40.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Water Girl
38.5%
Polymarket 38.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Water Girl
Last price
38.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
HoppersArb
37.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 41s agoPolymarket 48%polled, 41s agoKalshi 50%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hoppers
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Hoppers
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Hoppers
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.3¢ and selling on Kalshi at 45¢ nets 4470 bps before fees.

With Tapes and Toasts in the Car
32%
Polymarket 32%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
With Tapes and Toasts in the Car
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$839
Trade this on Polymarket
TanglesArb
27%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 41s agoPolymarket 40.5%polled, 41s agoKalshi 36%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tangles
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Tangles
Last price
40.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tangles
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 3¢ and selling on Kalshi at 36¢ nets 3300 bps before fees.

Saba
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Saba
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy BottomArb
20.9%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 41s agoPolymarket 35%polled, 41s agoKalshi 31%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$283
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 31¢ nets 3080 bps before fees.

El Cuerpo de Cristo
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
El Cuerpo de Cristo
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Minions & MonstersArb
9.8%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 41s agoPolymarket 13%polled, 41s agoKalshi 13%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Minions & Monsters
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Minions & Monsters
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Minions & Monsters
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.5¢ and selling on Kalshi at 10¢ nets 950 bps before fees.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Toy Story 5 on Polymarket at 11¢, sell on Kalshi at 87¢ (7600 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: oscars.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Wildwood
  • God is Shy
  • Paper Trail

Live prices for Wildwood

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscar nominations for Best Animated Feature Film?". Wildwood leads at 84.9%. Next is God is Shy at 69%. $166K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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