The Prediction Markets

Oscar nominations for Best Cinematography?

Closes
Dec 31, 2027, in 14 months
Traded
$57K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

The Odyssey 76.9%

Next is Dune: Part Three at 57.9%. The venues differ most on The Whisper Man (Polymarket 0.2%, Kalshi 5%), a 4.9-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
The OdysseyArb
76.9%
Polymarket 59%polled, 52s agoPolymarket 93.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 96%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 63¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
59%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
93.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 63¢ and selling on Kalshi at 93¢ nets 3000 bps before fees.

Dune: Part ThreeArb
57.9%
Polymarket 25.5%polled, 52s agoPolymarket 91.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 89%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
91.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$151
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 29¢ and selling on Kalshi at 89¢ nets 6000 bps before fees.

Project Hail MaryArb
46.4%
Polymarket 8%polled, 52s agoPolymarket 61.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 61%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 11.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $840 (8.40x)
Polymarket
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11.9¢
Sell Yes
4.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$840 (8.40x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
61.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
61%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 11.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 55¢ nets 4310 bps before fees.

1949 / Fatherland
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
1949 / Fatherland
Last price
45%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
WerwulfArb
34.6%
Polymarket 6.4%polled, 52s agoPolymarket 55.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 50%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 11.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $855 (8.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
6.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11.7¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$855 (8.55x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
55.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$106
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$982
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 11.7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 49¢ nets 3730 bps before fees.

DiggerArb
22.2%
Polymarket 9.8%polled, 52s agoPolymarket 27%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 26%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 17.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $571 (5.71x)
Polymarket
Contract
Digger
Last price
9.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17.5¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$571 (5.71x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Digger
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$512
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Digger
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 17.5¢ and selling on Kalshi at 25¢ nets 750 bps before fees.

The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
16.5%
Polymarket 15%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 17%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$191
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 14¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 17¢.

ObsessionArb
13.4%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 52s agoPolymarket 15.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 19%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Obsession
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$444
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Obsession
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$51
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Obsession
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 12¢ nets 1180 bps before fees.

Fatherland
13%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 52s agoPolymarket 51.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fatherland
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$643
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Fatherland
Last price
51.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$205
Trade this on Polymarket
JosephineArb
7.5%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 52s agoPolymarket 13%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 11%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josephine
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$573
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Josephine
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$282
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Josephine
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$595
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 5¢ nets 480 bps before fees.

The Whisper ManArb
1.4%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 52s agoKalshi 5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Whisper Man
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$413
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Whisper Man
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 5¢ nets 480 bps before fees.

The Adventures of Cliff Booth
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$551
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Dune: Part Three on Polymarket at 29¢, sell on Kalshi at 89¢ (6000 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: oscars.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • The Odyssey
  • Dune: Part Three
  • Project Hail Mary

Live prices for The Odyssey

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscar nominations for Best Cinematography?". The Odyssey leads at 76.9%. Next is Dune: Part Three at 57.9%. $57K has traded across 12 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More culture markets

See all culture markets