The Prediction Markets

Oscar nominations for Best Director?

Closes
Dec 31, 2027, in 14 months
Traded
$202K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Javier Calvo 86.4%

Next is Javier Ambrossi at 82%. The venues differ most on Nathan Fielder (Polymarket 55.4%, Kalshi 64%), a 8.7-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Javier Calvo
86.4%
Polymarket 87.5%polled, 48s agoKalshi 86%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
Contract
Javier Calvo
Last price
87.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$646
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Javier Calvo
Last price
86%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 86¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 90¢.

Javier Ambrossi
82%
Polymarket 82%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Polymarket
Contract
Javier Ambrossi
Last price
82%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$603
Trade this on Polymarket
Christopher NolanArb
77.8%
Polymarket 62%polled, 48s agoPolymarket 89.5%polled, 48s agoKalshi 94%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 63¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Polymarket
Contract
Christopher Nolan
Last price
62%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Christopher Nolan
Last price
89.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92.2¢
Sell Yes
86.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Christopher Nolan
Last price
94%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 63¢ and selling on Kalshi at 94¢ nets 3100 bps before fees.

Nathan Fielder
61.8%
Polymarket 55.4%polled, 48s agoKalshi 64%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 62.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nathan Fielder
Last price
55.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62.9¢
Sell Yes
47.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Nathan Fielder
Last price
64%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 62¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 62.9¢.

Martin McDonaghArb
55.9%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 48s agoPolymarket 72%polled, 48s agoKalshi 75%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Martin McDonagh
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$544
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Martin McDonagh
Last price
72%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Martin McDonagh
Last price
75%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 2.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 75¢ nets 7210 bps before fees.

Denis VilleneuveArb
39.7%
Polymarket 16%polled, 48s agoPolymarket 49.5%polled, 48s agoKalshi 57%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Denis Villeneuve
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Denis Villeneuve
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$609
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Denis Villeneuve
Last price
57%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 17¢ and selling on Kalshi at 53¢ nets 3600 bps before fees.

Olivia WildeArb
39.6%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 48s agoPolymarket 51%polled, 48s agoKalshi 53%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Olivia Wilde
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$603
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Olivia Wilde
Last price
51%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Olivia Wilde
Last price
53%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 53¢ nets 5110 bps before fees.

Ryusuke HamaguchiArb
25.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 48s agoPolymarket 28%polled, 48s agoKalshi 37%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ryusuke Hamaguchi
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$255
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Ryusuke Hamaguchi
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ryusuke Hamaguchi
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 34¢ nets 3320 bps before fees.

Cristian MungiuArb
19.1%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 48s agoPolymarket 20%polled, 48s agoKalshi 28%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cristian Mungiu
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$255
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Cristian Mungiu
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Cristian Mungiu
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 28¢ nets 2700 bps before fees.

Jesse EisenbergArb
17.5%
Polymarket 1%polled, 48s agoPolymarket 17%polled, 48s agoKalshi 26%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jesse Eisenberg
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$502
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Jesse Eisenberg
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$618
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jesse Eisenberg
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 24¢ nets 2210 bps before fees.

Show 27 more outcomes
Javier Calvo or Javier Ambrossi
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Javier Calvo or Javier Ambrossi
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$925
Trade this on Polymarket
Alejandro González Iñárritu
11.9%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 48s agoKalshi 13%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alejandro González Iñárritu
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$642
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Alejandro González Iñárritu
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 10¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 12¢.

Curry Barker
9.8%
Polymarket 9%polled, 48s agoKalshi 10%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 9.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,031 (10.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Curry Barker
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.7¢
Sell Yes
8.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,031 (10.3x)
Volume
$102
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Curry Barker
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 8.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 10¢.

Christopher Miller
9.5%
Polymarket 10%polled, 48s agoKalshi 9%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Christopher Miller
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Christopher Miller
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 9¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 9¢.

Phil Lord
9.3%
Polymarket 10%polled, 48s agoKalshi 9%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Phil Lord
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11.6¢
Sell Yes
8.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$862 (8.62x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Phil Lord
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 8.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 9¢.

Paweł PawlikowskiArb
8.4%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 48s agoKalshi 8%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paweł Pawlikowski
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$364
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Paweł Pawlikowski
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 8¢ and selling on Polymarket at 9¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

David FincherArb
8%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 48s agoPolymarket 11.5%polled, 48s agoKalshi 10%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
David Fincher
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$37
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
David Fincher
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$120
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
David Fincher
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 2¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Greta Gerwig
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Greta Gerwig
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Peter Farrelly
6.3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 48s agoPolymarket 16.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 5.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,754 (17.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Peter Farrelly
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,754 (17.5x)
Volume
$719
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Peter Farrelly
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$227
Trade this on Polymarket
Lance Oppenheim
6.3%
Polymarket 6.3%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 10.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $935 (9.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lance Oppenheim
Last price
6.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10.7¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$935 (9.35x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Na Hong-jin
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 48s agoKalshi 6%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Na Hong-jin
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Na Hong-jin
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Mike LeighArb
5.1%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 48s agoPolymarket 6%polled, 48s agoKalshi 7%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mike Leigh
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$49
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Mike Leigh
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$389
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mike Leigh
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 6¢ nets 500 bps before fees.

Steven SpielbergArb
5%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 48s agoPolymarket 3.8%polled, 48s agoKalshi 8%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Steven Spielberg
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$512
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Steven Spielberg
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Steven Spielberg
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 6¢ nets 540 bps before fees.

Joel CoenArb
4.3%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 48s agoPolymarket 4.6%polled, 48s agoKalshi 6%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Joel Coen
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$49
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Joel Coen
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.5¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,333 (13.3x)
Volume
$436
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Joel Coen
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 3¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

Beth de Araujo
4.1%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 48s agoKalshi 1%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Beth de Araujo
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$911
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Beth de Araujo
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Tony Gilroy
3.8%
Polymarket 6.1%polled, 48s agoKalshi 3%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tony Gilroy
Last price
6.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
3.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Volume
$589
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tony Gilroy
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3.8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Ben Affleck
3.6%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 48s agoKalshi 1%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ben Affleck
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ben Affleck
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$131
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

Janus Metz Pedersen
3.6%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 48s agoKalshi 1%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Janus Metz Pedersen
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$607
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Janus Metz Pedersen
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$22
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Andrew Haigh
3.4%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 48s agoPolymarket 6%polled, 48s agoKalshi 1%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andrew Haigh
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$37
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Andrew Haigh
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$161
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Andrew Haigh
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$23
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

James Ashcroft
2.5%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 48s agoKalshi 1%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
James Ashcroft
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$392
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
James Ashcroft
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$27
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.

Alejandro G. Iñárritu
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alejandro G. Iñárritu
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Danny Boyle
2.2%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 48s agoKalshi 1%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Danny Boyle
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$690
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Danny Boyle
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Aaron Sorkin
1.9%
Polymarket 1%polled, 48s agoPolymarket 4%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Aaron Sorkin
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$518
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Aaron Sorkin
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$223
Trade this on Polymarket
Phil Lord or Christopher Miller
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Phil Lord or Christopher Miller
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$611
Trade this on Polymarket
David O. Russell
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
David O. Russell
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$403
Trade this on Polymarket
Bassam Tariq
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bassam Tariq
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$430
Trade this on Polymarket
Jordan Firstman
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jordan Firstman
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$483
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Martin McDonagh on Polymarket at 2.9¢, sell on Kalshi at 75¢ (7210 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: oscars.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Javier Calvo
  • Javier Ambrossi
  • Christopher Nolan

Live prices for Javier Calvo

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscar nominations for Best Director?". Javier Calvo leads at 86.4%. Next is Javier Ambrossi at 82%. $202K has traded across 37 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More culture markets

See all culture markets