The Prediction Markets

Oscar nominations for Best International Feature Film?

Closes
Dec 31, 2027, in 14 months
Traded
$154K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Wildwood 90%

Next is The Black Ball at 88.8%. The venues differ most on Hope (Polymarket 0.2%, Kalshi 6%), a 5.8-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Wildwood
90%
Polymarket 90%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 91¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wildwood
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
The Black BallArb
88.8%
Polymarket 79.5%polled, 3 min agoPolymarket 97.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 99%polled, just nowBest Yes 80¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
79.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
97.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
95.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 80¢ and selling on Kalshi at 98¢ nets 1800 bps before fees.

Toy Story 5
81.5%
Polymarket 81.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 83¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Polymarket
Contract
Toy Story 5
Last price
81.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Forgotten Island
77%
Polymarket 77%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 87¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Polymarket
Contract
Forgotten Island
Last price
77%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
All of a SuddenArb
70.9%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, 3 min agoPolymarket 98%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 96%polled, just nowBest Yes 7.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
All of a Sudden
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
7.6¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,316 (13.2x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
All of a Sudden
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
97¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$530
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
All of a Sudden
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 7.6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 92¢ nets 8440 bps before fees.

Iron Boy
69%
Polymarket 69%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 83¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Polymarket
Contract
Iron Boy
Last price
69%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$690
Trade this on Polymarket
Ray Gunn
68.5%
Polymarket 68.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ray Gunn
Last price
68.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
FjordArb
66.3%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 3 min agoPolymarket 86.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 87%polled, just nowBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fjord
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Fjord
Last price
86.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Fjord
Last price
87%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 6.7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 85¢ nets 7830 bps before fees.

Possible LoveArb
58.6%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 3 min agoPolymarket 81.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 74%polled, just nowBest Yes 6.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Possible Love
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Possible Love
Last price
81.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$636
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Possible Love
Last price
74%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 6.6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 74¢ nets 6740 bps before fees.

Hoppers
52%
Polymarket 52%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hoppers
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 15 more outcomes
Tangles
44%
Polymarket 44%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tangles
Last price
44%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
1949 / Fatherland
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, just nowBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
1949 / Fatherland
Last price
43%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
MinotaurArb
41.2%
Polymarket 6.9%polled, 3 min agoPolymarket 52%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 53%polled, just nowBest Yes 12.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $806 (8.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
Minotaur
Last price
6.9%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
12.4¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$806 (8.06x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Minotaur
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Minotaur
Last price
53%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 12.4¢ and selling on Kalshi at 49¢ nets 3660 bps before fees.

Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom
35%
Polymarket 35%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$283
Trade this on Polymarket
RoseArb
21.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 3 min agoPolymarket 34%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 30%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rose
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Rose
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Rose
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 29¢ nets 2800 bps before fees.

Fatherland
20.7%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 3 min agoPolymarket 44%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fatherland
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Fatherland
Last price
44%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
CowardArb
13.7%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3 min agoPolymarket 16.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 21%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Coward
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Coward
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Coward
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 13¢ nets 1280 bps before fees.

Minions & Monsters
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Minions & Monsters
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
HopeArb
4.5%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 6%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hope
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Hope
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 80 bps before fees.

The Dreamed AdventureArb
3.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3 min agoPolymarket 8.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Dreamed Adventure
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Dreamed Adventure
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$117
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Dreamed Adventure
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$465
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 4¢ nets 380 bps before fees.

Bitter ChristmasArb
3.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bitter Christmas
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bitter Christmas
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 2¢ nets 180 bps before fees.

Parallel TalesArb
2.7%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 4%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Parallel Tales
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Parallel Tales
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.4¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 60 bps before fees.

Sheep in the BoxArb
2.4%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 6%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sheep in the Box
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sheep in the Box
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$936
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.3¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 70 bps before fees.

The Man I LoveArb
2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 4%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Man I Love
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Man I Love
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.3¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 70 bps before fees.

The BelovedArb
1.4%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Beloved
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Beloved
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$514
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 2¢ nets 180 bps before fees.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy All of a Sudden on Polymarket at 7.6¢, sell on Kalshi at 92¢ (8440 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: oscars.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Wildwood
  • The Black Ball
  • Toy Story 5

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Wildwood for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscar nominations for Best International Feature Film?". Wildwood leads at 90%. Next is The Black Ball at 88.8%. $154K has traded across 25 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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