The Prediction Markets

Oscar nominations for Best Makeup and Hairstyling?

Closes
Dec 31, 2027, in 14 months
Traded
$75K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Werwulf 65.8%

Next is The Odyssey at 56.5%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on every outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
WerwulfArb
65.8%
Polymarket 42.7%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 89%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 88%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 43.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $229 (2.29x)
Polymarket
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
42.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
43.7¢
Sell Yes
41.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$229 (2.29x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 43.7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 87¢ nets 4330 bps before fees.

The OdysseyArb
56.5%
Polymarket 18%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 83%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 77%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$977
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
77%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 20¢ and selling on Kalshi at 77¢ nets 5700 bps before fees.

DiggerArb
53.3%
Polymarket 19%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 68.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 67%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Digger
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Digger
Last price
68.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$45
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Digger
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 20¢ and selling on Kalshi at 66¢ nets 4600 bps before fees.

Dune: Part ThreeArb
41.4%
Polymarket 10%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 63%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 64%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
63%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
64%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 12¢ and selling on Kalshi at 63¢ nets 5100 bps before fees.

WickerArb
32.2%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 60.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 62%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wicker
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Wicker
Last price
60.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$615
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wicker
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$575
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 2.5¢ and selling on Kalshi at 62¢ nets 5950 bps before fees.

ClayfaceArb
31.9%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 43%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 39%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 10.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $962 (9.62x)
Polymarket
Contract
Clayface
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
10.4¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$962 (9.62x)
Volume
$490
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Clayface
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Clayface
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 10.4¢ and selling on Kalshi at 39¢ nets 2860 bps before fees.

MichaelArb
21.4%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 23.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 31%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$606
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Michael
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$72
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Michael
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.5¢ and selling on Kalshi at 28¢ nets 2750 bps before fees.

MaddenArb
15%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 16.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 25%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,724 (17.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Madden
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$493
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Madden
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$368
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Madden
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$534
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 5.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 18¢ nets 1220 bps before fees.

RoseArb
14.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 22%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 25%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rose
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$306
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Rose
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$101
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Rose
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$252
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.4¢ and selling on Kalshi at 18¢ nets 1760 bps before fees.

I Love Boosters
10.7%
Polymarket 7.7%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 12.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 15%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
I Love Boosters
Last price
7.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$659
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
I Love Boosters
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$188
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
I Love Boosters
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$118
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 11¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 15¢.

Show 3 more outcomes
The Social ReckoningArb
6%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 7%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 10%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Social Reckoning
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$291
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Social Reckoning
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Social Reckoning
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$363
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 10¢ nets 980 bps before fees.

UNABOMBER
3.9%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 5.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
UNABOMBER
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$321
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
UNABOMBER
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$261
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
UNABOMBER
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$311
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1.2¢.

Cry to HeavenArb
1.7%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 1.8%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cry to Heaven
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$275
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Cry to Heaven
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Cry to Heaven
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 80 bps before fees.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Wicker on Polymarket at 2.5¢, sell on Kalshi at 62¢ (5950 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jul 1, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: oscars.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jul 1, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Werwulf
  • The Odyssey
  • Digger

Live prices for Werwulf

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscar nominations for Best Makeup and Hairstyling?". Werwulf leads at 65.8%. Next is The Odyssey at 56.5%. $75K has traded across 13 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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