The Prediction Markets

Oscar nominations for Best Music (Original Score)?

Closes
Dec 31, 2027, in 14 months
Traded
$151K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

The Debut 84.5%

Next is The Odyssey at 62.9%. The venues differ most on Cry to Heaven (Polymarket 0.2%, Kalshi 5%), a 4.8-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
The Debut
84.5%
Polymarket 84.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 86¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Debut
Last price
84.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$924
Trade this on Polymarket
The OdysseyArb
62.9%
Polymarket 65%polled, 3 min agoPolymarket 95.5%polled, 30s agoPolymarket 4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 87%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
65%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
95.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$998
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,316 (13.2x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
87%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 7.6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 87¢ nets 7940 bps before fees.

Club Kid
58.5%
Polymarket 58.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Club Kid
Last price
58.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Obsession
52.5%
Polymarket 52.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
Obsession
Last price
52.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$720
Trade this on Polymarket
Dune: Part ThreeArb
50.9%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 3 min agoPolymarket 68%polled, 30s agoKalshi 64%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
68%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
64%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 20¢ and selling on Kalshi at 64¢ nets 4400 bps before fees.

Disclosure DayArb
49.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 3 min agoPolymarket 68%polled, 30s agoKalshi 62%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 7.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Disclosure Day
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
7.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,389 (13.9x)
Volume
$489
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Disclosure Day
Last price
68%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Disclosure Day
Last price
62%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 7.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 62¢ nets 5480 bps before fees.

You Can See Everything
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
You Can See Everything
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$92
Trade this on Polymarket
Project Hail MaryArb
47.4%
Polymarket 5.8%polled, 3 min agoPolymarket 60%polled, 30s agoKalshi 62%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 10.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $980 (9.80x)
Polymarket
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
5.8%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
10.2¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$980 (9.80x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
60%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
62%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 10.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 57¢ nets 4680 bps before fees.

Fjord
46.5%
Polymarket 46.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fjord
Last price
46.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Wild Horse NineArb
39.7%
Polymarket 5.2%polled, 3 min agoPolymarket 28%polled, 30s agoPolymarket 92.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 33%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 9.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,042 (10.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
5.2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
9.6¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,042 (10.4x)
Volume
$132
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$832
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
92.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$864
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$925
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 34¢ and selling on Polymarket at 91¢ nets 5700 bps before fees.

Show 17 more outcomes
The Black BallArb
39.4%
Polymarket 6.9%polled, 3 min agoPolymarket 79.5%polled, 30s agoPolymarket 2.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 69%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
6.9%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
8.2¢
Sell Yes
5.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,220 (12.2x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
79.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
69%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 3.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 67¢ nets 6380 bps before fees.

Behemoth!Arb
29.4%
Polymarket 29%polled, 30s agoPolymarket 20.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 36%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Behemoth!
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Behemoth!
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$521
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Behemoth!
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 22¢ and selling on Kalshi at 35¢ nets 1300 bps before fees.

Elsinore
28.5%
Polymarket 28.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elsinore
Last price
28.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$609
Trade this on Polymarket
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Digger
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Digger
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff BoothArb
10.7%
Polymarket 14%polled, 30s agoPolymarket 2.9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 13%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$631
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 4.7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 12¢ nets 730 bps before fees.

Josephine
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josephine
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Polymarket
WhalefallArb
9.2%
Polymarket 5.2%polled, 3 min agoPolymarket 7.7%polled, 30s agoKalshi 16%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 8.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Whalefall
Last price
5.2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$217
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Whalefall
Last price
7.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.9¢
Sell Yes
6.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,124 (11.2x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Whalefall
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$542
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 8.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 9¢ nets 10 bps before fees.

Forgotten Island
9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $629 (6.29x)
Polymarket
Contract
Forgotten Island
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15.9¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$629 (6.29x)
Volume
$110
Trade this on Polymarket
The DramaArb
6.5%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3 min agoPolymarket 4.8%polled, 30s agoPolymarket 18%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Drama
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$191
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Drama
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$345
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Drama
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Drama
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$646
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 10¢ and selling on Polymarket at 17¢ nets 700 bps before fees.

The Social ReckoningArb
4.8%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3 min agoPolymarket 6%polled, 30s agoKalshi 7%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Social Reckoning
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$98
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Social Reckoning
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Social Reckoning
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$611
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.3¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 70 bps before fees.

Fatherland
4.3%
Polymarket 4.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fatherland
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$527
Trade this on Polymarket
The Invite
3.9%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Invite
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$595
Trade this on Polymarket
Cry to HeavenArb
3.8%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cry to Heaven
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$112
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Cry to Heaven
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$836
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.3¢ and selling on Kalshi at 2¢ nets 170 bps before fees.

The Adventures of Cliff Booth
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$241
Trade this on Polymarket
The Mandalorian and GroguArb
2.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 3 min agoPolymarket 2.5%polled, 30s agoKalshi 4%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Mandalorian and Grogu
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$154
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Mandalorian and Grogu
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Mandalorian and Grogu
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$852
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 20 bps before fees.

A Place in Hell
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
A Place in Hell
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$531
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy The Odyssey on Polymarket at 7.6¢, sell on Kalshi at 87¢ (7940 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: oscars.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • The Debut
  • The Odyssey
  • Club Kid

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list The Debut for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscar nominations for Best Music (Original Score)?". The Debut leads at 84.5%. Next is The Odyssey at 62.9%. $151K has traded across 27 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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