The Prediction Markets

Oscar nominations for Best Picture?

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$2.0M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

The Black Ball 94%

Next is The Odyssey at 77.6%. The venues differ most on Artificial (Polymarket 0.5%, Kalshi 55%), a 55-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
The Black Ball
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Odyssey
77.6%
Polymarket 45.5%polled, 1 h agoPolymarket 97.3%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 98%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
45.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$175K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
97.3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
99.1¢
Sell Yes
95.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$162K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 46¢ and selling on Kalshi at 98¢ nets 5200 bps before fees.

Wild Horse Nine
67.7%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 1 h agoPolymarket 91.5%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 89%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
91.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$57K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 1.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 89¢ nets 8720 bps before fees.

You Can See Everything
60.6%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 1 h agoPolymarket 72%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 75%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
You Can See Everything
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
19.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
You Can See Everything
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
You Can See Everything
Last price
75%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$126K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 21¢ and selling on Kalshi at 75¢ nets 5400 bps before fees.

Project Hail Mary
60.3%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 1 h agoPolymarket 76.5%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 82%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
76.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$181K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 81¢ nets 8010 bps before fees.

The Debut
51.9%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 h agoPolymarket 78%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 76%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Debut
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Debut
Last price
78%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Debut
Last price
76%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.4¢ and selling on Kalshi at 76¢ nets 7560 bps before fees.

Dune: Part Three
51.6%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 1 h agoPolymarket 86.5%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 83%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$32K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
86.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 81¢ nets 7200 bps before fees.

The Invite
41.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 h agoPolymarket 58%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 54%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Invite
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Invite
Last price
58%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Invite
Last price
54%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$42K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 53¢ nets 5240 bps before fees.

Artificial
41.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 55%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Artificial
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Artificial
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.5¢ and selling on Kalshi at 52¢ nets 5150 bps before fees.

La Bola Negra
37.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 1 h agoPolymarket 94.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
La Bola Negra
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
La Bola Negra
Last price
94.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 46 more outcomes
I Play Rocky
29.4%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 h agoPolymarket 39.5%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 39%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
I Play Rocky
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
I Play Rocky
Last price
39.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
I Play Rocky
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.4¢ and selling on Kalshi at 39¢ nets 3860 bps before fees.

All of a Sudden
27.5%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 h agoPolymarket 38%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 37%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
All of a Sudden
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
All of a Sudden
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
All of a Sudden
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 36¢ nets 3580 bps before fees.

Fjord
27%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 1 h agoPolymarket 35%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 36%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fjord
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Fjord
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Fjord
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$45K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 1.1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 35¢ nets 3390 bps before fees.

Obsession
25.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 h agoPolymarket 34.5%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 33%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Obsession
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Obsession
Last price
34.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Obsession
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$105K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.3¢ and selling on Kalshi at 33¢ nets 3270 bps before fees.

Club Kid
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Club Kid
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$32K
Trade this on Kalshi
Elsinore
22.7%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 h agoPolymarket 30.5%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 30%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elsinore
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Elsinore
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$608
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Elsinore
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.3¢ and selling on Kalshi at 29¢ nets 2870 bps before fees.

Wildwood
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wildwood
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Possible Love
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Possible Love
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Digger
17.9%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 1 h agoPolymarket 20%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 24%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Digger
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Digger
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Digger
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$87K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 3.6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 22¢ nets 1840 bps before fees.

The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Kalshi
Being Heumann
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Being Heumann
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Primetime
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Primetime
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Behemoth
11.6%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 h agoPolymarket 16.5%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 17%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Behemoth!
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Behemoth!
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$101
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Behemoth
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.3¢ and selling on Kalshi at 14¢ nets 1370 bps before fees.

Ink
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ink
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sense and Sensibility
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sense and Sensibility
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Michael
8.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 h agoPolymarket 10.5%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 11%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Michael
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Michael
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 11¢ nets 1090 bps before fees.

Josephine
7.6%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 12%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josephine
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Josephine
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.5¢ and selling on Kalshi at 5¢ nets 450 bps before fees.

The Adventures of Cliff Booth
7.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 h agoPolymarket 19.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Misty Green
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Misty Green
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Kalshi
Werwulf
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Minotaur
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Minotaur
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Paper Tiger
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Paper Tiger
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Whisper Man
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Whisper Man
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$226
Trade this on Kalshi
Avengers: Doomsday
4.7%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 h agoPolymarket 8.8%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Avengers: Doomsday
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Avengers: Doomsday
Last price
8.8%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
7.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Avengers: Doomsday
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 3¢ nets 290 bps before fees.

Parallel Tales
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Parallel Tales
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rose
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rose
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hope
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hope
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Death of Robin Hood
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Death of Robin Hood
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$686
Trade this on Kalshi
The Entertainment System Is Down
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Entertainment System Is Down
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Disclosure Day
2.7%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 h agoPolymarket 4.9%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Disclosure Day
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Disclosure Day
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Disclosure Day
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$44K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 2¢ nets 190 bps before fees.

The Drama
2.5%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 h agoPolymarket 2.9%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Drama
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Drama
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$747
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Drama
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.3¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 70 bps before fees.

Fatherland
2.5%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 h agoPolymarket 5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fatherland
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Fatherland
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Saturn Return
2.5%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Saturn Return
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Saturn Return
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 4¢ nets 380 bps before fees.

The Social Reckoning
2.2%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 h agoPolymarket 4.4%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Social Reckoning
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Social Reckoning
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
3.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Social Reckoning
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 3.9¢ nets 190 bps before fees.

1949 / Fatherland
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
1949 / Fatherland
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Backrooms
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Backrooms
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bucking Fastard
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bucking Fastard
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cry to Heaven
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cry to Heaven
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
I Love Boosters
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
I Love Boosters
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jack of Spades
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jack of Spades
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Narnia: The Magician's Nephew
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Narnia: The Magician's Nephew
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Uprising
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Uprising
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$918
Trade this on Kalshi
Tony
0.4%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tony
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tony
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 80 bps before fees.

Clarissa
0.3%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Clarissa
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Clarissa
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$625
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 90 bps before fees.

Indicative gap, prices are 1 h old: Wild Horse Nine asks 1.8¢ on Polymarket and bids 89¢ on Kalshi (8720 bps). Recheck both venues before trading. See all spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: oscars.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • The Black Ball
  • The Odyssey
  • Wild Horse Nine

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list The Black Ball for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscar nominations for Best Picture?". The Black Ball leads at 94%. Next is The Odyssey at 77.6%. $2.0M has traded across 56 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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