The Prediction Markets

Oscar nominations for Best Supporting Actor?

Closes
Dec 31, 2027, in 14 months
Traded
$379K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Matt Damon 94.2%

Next is John Malkovich at 87.5%. The venues differ most on Antonio Banderas (Polymarket 7.6%, Kalshi 9%), a 1.4-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Matt Damon
94.2%
Polymarket 94.2%polled, just nowBest Yes 95.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matt Damon
Last price
94.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95.8¢
Sell Yes
92.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
John Malkovich
87.5%
Polymarket 87.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 88¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Malkovich
Last price
87.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Andrew Scott
85%
Polymarket 85%polled, just nowBest Yes 86¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andrew Scott
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Paul GiamattiArb
61.7%
Polymarket 28.5%polled, just nowPolymarket 93%polled, just nowKalshi 91%polled, just nowBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paul Giamatti
Last price
28.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Paul Giamatti
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$673
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Paul Giamatti
Last price
91%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 30¢ and selling on Kalshi at 85¢ nets 5500 bps before fees.

Tom Cruise
60.5%
Polymarket 60.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 63¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tom Cruise
Last price
60.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Polymarket
John LeguizamoArb
55.1%
Polymarket 4%polled, just nowPolymarket 72.5%polled, just nowKalshi 72%polled, just nowBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Leguizamo
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$477
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
John Leguizamo
Last price
72.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
John Leguizamo
Last price
72%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 6.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 72¢ nets 6510 bps before fees.

GuitarricadelafuenteArb
54.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, just nowPolymarket 66.5%polled, just nowKalshi 71%polled, just nowBest Yes 10.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $917 (9.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Guitarricadelafuente
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10.9¢
Sell Yes
10.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$917 (9.17x)
Volume
$901
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Guitarricadelafuente
Last price
66.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Guitarricadelafuente
Last price
71%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 10.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 70¢ nets 5910 bps before fees.

Andrew GarfieldArb
54.3%
Polymarket 30%polled, just nowPolymarket 80%polled, just nowKalshi 76%polled, just nowBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andrew Garfield
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Andrew Garfield
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Andrew Garfield
Last price
76%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 32¢ and selling on Kalshi at 76¢ nets 4400 bps before fees.

John Turturro
47.5%
Polymarket 47.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Turturro
Last price
47.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Edward NortonArb
44.4%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, just nowPolymarket 55.5%polled, just nowKalshi 60%polled, just nowBest Yes 2.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Edward Norton
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$922
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Edward Norton
Last price
55.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Edward Norton
Last price
60%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 2.6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 56¢ nets 5340 bps before fees.

Show 35 more outcomes
Ryan Gosling
44%
Polymarket 44%polled, just nowBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ryan Gosling
Last price
44%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Sam RockwellArb
42%
Polymarket 7.6%polled, just nowPolymarket 6.9%polled, just nowPolymarket 73.5%polled, just nowKalshi 80%polled, just nowBest Yes 8.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,176 (11.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sam Rockwell
Last price
7.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.5¢
Sell Yes
6.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,176 (11.8x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Sam Rockwell
Last price
6.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.6¢
Sell Yes
5.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,163 (11.6x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Sam Rockwell
Last price
73.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$858
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sam Rockwell
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 8.5¢ and selling on Kalshi at 75¢ nets 6650 bps before fees.

Anthony Ippolito
33.5%
Polymarket 33.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anthony Ippolito
Last price
33.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Robert PattinsonArb
28.4%
Polymarket 48.5%polled, just nowPolymarket 6.6%polled, just nowPolymarket 33.5%polled, just nowKalshi 25%polled, just nowBest Yes 7.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert Pattinson
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Robert Pattinson
Last price
6.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.6¢
Sell Yes
5.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,316 (13.2x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Robert Pattinson
Last price
33.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Robert Pattinson
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$34K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 26¢ and selling on Polymarket at 47¢ nets 2100 bps before fees.

Sebastian Stan
18.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sebastian Stan
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Colman DomingoArb
17.6%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, just nowPolymarket 19.5%polled, just nowKalshi 25%polled, just nowBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Colman Domingo
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$296
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Colman Domingo
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$23
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Colman Domingo
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1.1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 23¢ nets 2190 bps before fees.

Jaafar Jackson
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, just nowBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jaafar Jackson
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Pedro Pascal
15.2%
Polymarket 15.2%polled, just nowBest Yes 17.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $585 (5.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pedro Pascal
Last price
15.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17.1¢
Sell Yes
13.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$585 (5.85x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Timothée Chalamet
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, just nowBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Timothée Chalamet
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Polymarket
John GoodmanArb
9.7%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, just nowPolymarket 14.3%polled, just nowKalshi 11%polled, just nowBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Goodman
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
John Goodman
Last price
14.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15.5¢
Sell Yes
13.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$645 (6.45x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
John Goodman
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 8¢ nets 610 bps before fees.

Riz AhmedArb
9.2%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, just nowPolymarket 13.5%polled, just nowKalshi 11%polled, just nowBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Riz Ahmed
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$182
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Riz Ahmed
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Riz Ahmed
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 11¢ nets 920 bps before fees.

Antonio Banderas
8.3%
Polymarket 7.6%polled, just nowKalshi 9%polled, just nowBest Yes 9.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Antonio Banderas
Last price
7.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
5.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Antonio Banderas
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 9.9¢.

Steve BuscemiArb
7%
Polymarket 1%polled, just nowPolymarket 11%polled, just nowKalshi 8%polled, just nowBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Steve Buscemi
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$145
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Steve Buscemi
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$103
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Steve Buscemi
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1.7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 8¢ nets 630 bps before fees.

Channing Tatum
6.9%
Polymarket 1%polled, just nowPolymarket 6.8%polled, just nowKalshi 10%polled, just nowBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Channing Tatum
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$246
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Channing Tatum
Last price
6.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
5.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Volume
$173
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Channing Tatum
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1.3¢.

Josh O'Connor
6.1%
Polymarket 6.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 7.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josh O'Connor
Last price
6.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.2¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,389 (13.9x)
Volume
$225
Trade this on Polymarket
Skyler GisondoArb
6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, just nowPolymarket 7.5%polled, just nowKalshi 8%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Skyler Gisondo
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Skyler Gisondo
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$474
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Skyler Gisondo
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 4¢ nets 300 bps before fees.

Himesh PatelArb
5.2%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, just nowPolymarket 4.8%polled, just nowKalshi 8%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Himesh Patel
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$168
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Himesh Patel
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.4¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,351 (13.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Himesh Patel
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 3¢ nets 210 bps before fees.

Javier Bardem
5.1%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 8.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,235 (12.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Javier Bardem
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.1¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,235 (12.3x)
Volume
$499
Trade this on Polymarket
Robert DeNiro
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Robert DeNiro
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Kalshi
Adam Driver
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 6.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Adam Driver
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
3.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Michael Fassbender
4.7%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, just nowPolymarket 7.6%polled, just nowKalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael Fassbender
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$292
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Michael Fassbender
Last price
7.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11.7¢
Sell Yes
3.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$855 (8.55x)
Volume
$57
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Michael Fassbender
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1.4¢.

Miles TellerArb
4.6%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, just nowPolymarket 6.8%polled, just nowKalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Miles Teller
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$182
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Miles Teller
Last price
6.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
5.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Volume
$341
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Miles Teller
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 5¢ and selling on Polymarket at 5.1¢ nets 10 bps before fees.

Brad Pitt
4.4%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brad Pitt
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
James OrtizArb
4.1%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, just nowPolymarket 6%polled, just nowKalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
James Ortiz
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$172
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
James Ortiz
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$224
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
James Ortiz
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 2¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Jeremy StrongArb
3.8%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, just nowPolymarket 0.5%polled, just nowPolymarket 11.1%polled, just nowKalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jeremy Strong
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Jeremy Strong
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$158
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Jeremy Strong
Last price
11.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jeremy Strong
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 3¢ nets 240 bps before fees.

Guy Pearce
3.5%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, just nowPolymarket 4.6%polled, just nowKalshi 4%polled, just nowBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Guy Pearce
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$714
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Guy Pearce
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.5¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,333 (13.3x)
Volume
$473
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Guy Pearce
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1.8¢.

Jesse Plemons
3.4%
Polymarket 5.3%polled, just nowPolymarket 2.7%polled, just nowKalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jesse Plemons
Last price
5.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$971 (9.71x)
Volume
$175
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Jesse Plemons
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jesse Plemons
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$967
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Andrew Scott
3.2%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, just nowPolymarket 3.4%polled, just nowKalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Adam Scott
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$181
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Adam Scott
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.4¢
Sell Yes
3.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,941 (29.4x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Adam Scott
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$15
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1.1¢.

Tom HollandArb
3%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, just nowPolymarket 3%polled, just nowKalshi 4%polled, just nowBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tom Holland
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$924
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Tom Holland
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tom Holland
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1.1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 4¢ nets 290 bps before fees.

Robert Aramayo
2.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, just nowBest Yes 4.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert Aramayo
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.2¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,381 (23.8x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Charles MeltonArb
2.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, just nowPolymarket 2.9%polled, just nowKalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Charles Melton
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$872
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Charles Melton
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Charles Melton
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.4¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 60 bps before fees.

Robert De Niro
2.1%
Polymarket 1%polled, just nowPolymarket 2.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert De Niro
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$154
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Robert De Niro
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$658
Trade this on Polymarket
Daniel Craig
1.9%
Polymarket 1%polled, just nowPolymarket 1.4%polled, just nowKalshi 4%polled, just nowBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Daniel Craig
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$156
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Daniel Craig
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Daniel Craig
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$708
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1.3¢.

Jacques Berman Webster II (Travis Scott)
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jacques Berman Webster II (Travis Scott)
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$586
Trade this on Kalshi
Travis Scott
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Travis Scott
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$361
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Sam Rockwell on Polymarket at 8.5¢, sell on Kalshi at 75¢ (6650 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 21, 2027, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: oscars.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jan 21, 2027, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Matt Damon
  • John Malkovich
  • Andrew Scott

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Matt Damon for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oscar nominations for Best Supporting Actor?". Matt Damon leads at 94.2%. Next is John Malkovich at 87.5%. $379K has traded across 45 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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